How a team gets mentally prepared for the postseason

Steve Phillips

TSN Baseball Insider

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The Toronto Blue Jays were 45-46 at the All-Star break and 50-51 at the trade deadline before their blockbuster acquisitions and incredible run to the AL East title. This is new territory not only for the team, but many of their players. Welcome to (meaningful) October baseball. From a psychological standpoint, how do a team’s general manager and/or manager prepare a team for that next step?

The playoffs feel different from the regular season for obvious reasons. The stakes are higher. There is more media coverage.  Stadiums are at full capacity. You play against the best of the best.  It can feel very big for even the most seasoned players.

The players who perform the best are the ones who can control their emotions and let their natural ability take over. Emotions can get in the way for ballplayers.  It’s impossible not to get hyped for the playoffs.  The urge to try harder is natural, yet it is counterproductive. A pitcher who tries to throw harder will leave pitches up in the zone and over the plate. A batter who swings harder can have that over aggressiveness exploited by a good change-up. 

Players have to find a way to be intense without being tense. 

The manager and general manager need to do all that they can to help their players relax.  The responsibility is more on the manager and his coaches than anyone else.  It has to be business as usual. Players are creatures of habit. They don’t like change. In the postseason there are different schedules and media requirements for clubs. I believe it is critical to not make a big deal out of them. Just accept what has to be done, do it and get back to the normal routine. If the bosses complain it gives the players license to complain as well. 

Game preparation is critical. In the meetings to prepare for the opposition the coaching staff needs to be definitive in the plan and the scouting reports. There are advanced scouts who have been scouting the opponent for weeks. They know who is hot and who is not. There are reports on how to pitch every hitter, how to approach every pitcher and how to align the defence to maximize coverage of a hitter’s spray charts. The plan needs to be definitive for every player. Even a bad plan presented with confidence is better than no plan. 

There will be inevitably be a team meeting before every series in which the players should be reminded to have fun and enjoy themselves. When that is the focus it takes away from the worry and stress that can creep in. 

John Gibbons and Alex Anthopoulos both have easy-going demeanours.  They are competitive, but they have the ability to present a calmness that belies the situation.  That will go a long way to helping their players just play. 

Washington's Bryce Harper and Jonathan Papelbon made headlines for all the wrong reasons last weekend with their dugout altercation. From that scuffle stemmed the debate about the unwritten rules (or code) in the game - that a pitcher, who spends a good chunk of the season as a spectator, should never call out a position player like that. Ironically, Harper made his own commentary against an unwritten rule just last week, saying he was "tired" of situations like Papelbon aiming at Manny Machado's head after the Baltimore slugger admired a home run earlier in a way that the reliever didn't like.  You've been in the game a long time - just how important is it to abide by the unwritten rules in today's game? Are they as "tired" as Harper described last week, or should they be honoured as he did in his fight with Papelbon?

Ahh yes…the unwritten rules of baseball. Young and old players know the rules; however, there seems to be more of a commitment to the rules by older veteran players.  Yes, even in baseball the youth are less concerned about following the rules that we older folks have believed in for years. That may sound like a criticism but it’s not.  In fact, I think some of the old rules are being revealed as inappropriate. The world is changing. 

Papelbon threw at Machado intentionally because he thought Machado over-celebrated his 30th homer of the season.  I watched the celebration and found it unremarkable. Papelbon saw something different and decided to teach the young Orioles star a lesson.  But in trying to enforce the unwritten rule of “no over-celebrating” he put his own star at risk.  Papelbon made no calculation for this in his decision-making process. 

When Harper called Papelbon’s actions “tired” he did it without saying his name.  But we all knew whom and what he meant.  Harper didn’t directly call out Papelbon, but it was clear he wasn’t happy that he would likely become the target of retaliation by the Orioles the next day. Honestly, I don’t blame him. 

Because this resentment was left unaddressed directly between Harper and Papelbon, it grew in magnitude. Harper was still resenting that he was a target and Papelbon was mad that Harper indirectly called him out in the media. 

When Harper didn’t run all out on his pop fly to left, Papelbon confronted Harper on his return to the dugout.  This had far less to do with Harper’s effort running to first base than being an opportunity for the reliever to attack the young star on his comments from the preceding day. 

What Papelbon did in the dugout was inexcusable.  He had no right, based upon a written or unwritten rule, to lay his hands on Harper.  In fact, he violated another unwritten rule about not airing dirty laundry in public. 

Papelbon actually violated the biggest unwritten rule of all, “Never lay your hands on the best player in baseball.”  That is a rule that will never change.

Society is changing, but baseball has always been slow to change; a bit behind the world. That being said, some of the silliness of what is unacceptable behaviour in baseball is being challenged by this generation of players and that is a good thing. 

I applaud the Washington Nationals for suspending Papelbon for the remainder of the season. I just hope that Papelbon doesn’t think I am over-celebrating because that wouldn’t end well for me.

The regular season is drawing to a close and it's time to play prognosticator - who are your AL and NL rookies of the year, managers of the year, CY Young winners and MVPs? And finally, who is your pick to win the World Series?

I love handing out awards for great performance, yet I always feel like when I sell one player over another I’m diminishing someone’s outstanding season.  There are many worthy candidates for the awards this year but only one player can take home the hardware.

Rookie of the Year

American League: 

The candidates are:  Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros; Francisco Lindor, SS Cleveland Indians; Miguel Sano, DH, Minnesota Twins; and Roberto Osuna, closer, Toronto Blue Jays.

Sano has hit well .271/.385/ .543 with 18 homers and 52 RBI in 77 games.  But since he is only a DH, it in some way diminishes him in comparison to the everyday shortstops who have also delivered offensively.

The same argument works against Roberto Osuna of the Blue Jays.  He is 1-5 with a 2.36 ERA.  He has converted 20 of 22 save opportunities and has a stellar .187 opponent’s batting average and a miniscule 0.87 WHIP.  But as a reliever he has only impacted 68 innings on the season. In a year with everyday player candidates for the award he falls short. 

So the award comes down to a comparison of Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor.  Both are highly touted prospects, but Correa came to the majors with more hype than any prospect since Bryce Harper broke in several years ago.  The hype may carry Correa to the award, but, after dissecting the numbers, Lindor has had a better rookie campaign in just about every category other than home runs.

AL Rookie of the Year:  Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians

National League:

There have been a number of solid rookie campaigns in the NL from: Maikel Franco, 3B; Philadelphia Phillies, Jung Ho Kang, INF; Pittsburgh Pirates; Matt Duffy, 3B San Francisco Giants; and Randal Grichuk, OF, St. Louis Cardinals. 

But no rookie has had the impact that Kris Bryant has had with the Cubs.  He has hit .279/.369/.495 with 26 homers and 99 RBI.  This kid is going to be a force for years to come and he will lead the Cubs to a World Series Championship in the future. 

NL Rookie of the Year; Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs

Managers of the Year

American League

A case can be made for several AL managers. 

Blue Jays manager John Gibbons has done an extraordinary job this season.  He patiently developed a quality bullpen with Roberto Osuna as the closer. He managed his way through big holes in a starting rotation and assimilated five new players in the club at the trade deadline, leading to the best record in baseball after August 1. Gibbons’ unassuming, humble nature has helped his club but likely hurts his chances for the award.  

Yankees manager Joe Girardi did an amazing job once again, managing an older roster with tons of questions. They are headed to the playoffs with as unpredictable a starting rotation as any team in recent years.  He managed around injuries and A-Rod.  No easy task.

Paul Molitor, the first-year manager of the Twins, has taken his young team and got them to believe in themselves when no one else did. The numbers don’t support their record.  They are a middle-of-the-pack team statistically, but enter the final weekend of the season with a real chance at October baseball.  They may come up short, but there is no denying the job Molitor did. 

Jeff Bannister is another first-year manager who gets strong consideration. He took a Texas Rangers team decimated by injuries a year ago and got them to believe in themselves. They overcame the loss of ace Yu Darvish in spring training and a slow start to the season. No team has better chemistry than the Rangers and no club has more fun playing together. They are headed to October baseball as the likely AL West Champion.

AL Manager of the Year, Jeff Bannister, Texas Rangers

National League:

The NL Central boasts clubs with the three best records in baseball.  Mike Matheny, the manager of the Cardinals, led his team to a 100-win season and the best record in baseball despite a number of significant injuries. He was able to do what the Washington Nationals could not. Clint Hurdle has instilled a workman-like approach in his Pirates team that is unparalleled. Cubs’ manager Joe Maddon has his young team believing they can do anything. They head to a wild-card showdown with the Pirates a year or two before they were expected to be this good. 

Mets manager Terry Collins has been on the hot seat the past couple of seasons, but his team has played remarkably well since GM Sandy Alderson significantly upgraded their offence at the trade deadline. Collins had to not only create an environment to help assimilate new players to his club; he had to also manage the expectations and workloads of several young starting pitchers. 

National League Manager of the Year, Mike Matheny

Cy Young Awards

American League

This is a two-man race:  David Price, Blue Jays vs. Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros.

Price is 18-5 with a 2.45 ERA combined between Detroit and Toronto, while Keuchel is 19-8 with a 2.47 ERA.  The rest of the numbers are eerily close between the two pitchers. I am not going to base the award on a slight advantage here or there between the two men. 

Here is the difference for me: since coming to the Blue Jays, David Price is 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA.  He is one of the best trade deadline acquisitions ever.  Keuchel is 3-2 with a 3.78 ERA in September. When the games have meant the most for the Jays Price has been his best and when the games have meant the most for the Astros, Keuchel has had his worst month.

The biggest weakness of the Astros is that they do not play well on the road.  They are 31-47, compared to 53-28 at home. Keuchel is 4-8 with a 3.82 ERA on the road.  He has fed into his team’s biggest weakness. He has not been their stopper like a CY Young candidate should be.

By the way, 11 of Davis Price’s 18 wins have come on the road.

AL Cy Young Award, David Price, Toronto Blue Jays

National League:

The NL Cy Young Award comes down to three pitchers: Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers; Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers; and Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs. 

This is really going to be a close call.  Whichever categories the voters deem most important will determine who wins the award. 

Arrieta (21-8, 1.82 ERA) has the most wins and the best opponents’ batting average. Plus, Arrieta has the best second half of any pitcher in the history of baseball. 

Kershaw (16-7, 2.16 ERA) has been the most dominant, as he has 294 strikeouts which is 65 more than Arrieta and over 100 more than Greinke. 

Greinke (18-3, 1.68 ERA) boasts the best ERA, WHIP and WAR of the three.

The bottom line is this award should go to the best pitcher in baseball over the course of the season.  Kershaw is the most dominant.  Arrieta has been the best in the second half.  But over the entire season Zach Greinke has been the very best.

NL Cy Young Award:  Zach Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers.

MVP Award

American League

This award comes down to Josh Donaldson and Mike Trout.  Both of them have had MVP-calibre seasons.  Donaldson (.300/.375/.577) has 41 homers with 123 RBI and 122 runs scored. Trout (.297/.399/.585) with 41 homers with 89 RBI and 101 runs scored.  Sabermetricians will say that the RBI and runs scored numbers are not good indicators of an individual performance but are team numbers. I get it. Trout has hit better than Donaldson with RISP but has had fewer opportunities. 

For those that like advanced metrics, Trout has a 9.1 WAR to Donaldson’s 8.9.

The biggest separation for me between the two is that in the month of August the Angels went 10-19 and Trout had by far the worst month of his season in which he hit only .218/.352/.337. The Jays had their best month of the season in August (21-6) and Donaldson was elite (.324/.408/.724), crushing 11 homers and driving in 35 runs.

AL MVP: Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays

National League:

Paul Goldschmidt ( .317/.432/.559) had another great season in Arizona, as did Joey Votto (.317/.463/.550) in Cincinnati.  But no one compares to Bryce Harper (.331/.461/.646).

Harper is on pace to be the batting champion and he also slugged 41 homers with 97 RBI and has scored 117 runs.  He has walked an amazing 124 times as well.  He has the best WAR at 9.9 which is 1.5 better than Goldschmidt and 2.2 better than Votto. 

NL MVP:  Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

World Series

It is always difficult to predict the World Series because the baseball playoffs can be a bit of a crapshoot. Last year I would have seeded the Royals and Giants ninth and tenth among the 10 qualifiers for the playoffs.  It is not always the best team that wins; it is the team playing the best. 

With that disqualifier here is my prediction:

World Series Match-up: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

I am predicting that this will be an epic seven-game World Series.  Clayton Kershaw will do his best Madison Bumgarner imitation, with Zach Greinke as his sidekick.  They will try to ham and egg as many innings as they can, like Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson did in 2001 against the New York Yankees, where at least one of them appeared in five of the seven games.  But in the end the Jays will prevail, with Josh Donaldson delivering the game-winner and earning World Series MVP to go with his regular-season award. 

World Series Champion:  Blue Jays win in seven games

It’s time to conclude my evaluations of the AL post-season clubs.  In previous articles I ranked the offences, starting pitching and bullpens. Today I will rank the defences.

6) New York Yankees

The Yanks thought they would have a much-improved infield defence from last year.  A full season of Chase Headley at third base and Didi Gregorius’s range replacing Derek Jeter at short were supposed to make a big difference.  Gregorius struggled early in the season, but to his credit has gotten comfortable and has been terrific after the slow start. Headly has developed some throwing issues and has committed 23 errors. The right side of the infield started off as Mark Teixeira and Stephen Drew which provided excellent defence, but now the Yanks have Rob Refsnyder and Greg Bird on the right side. Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury are decent in the outfield, but neither can throw. Carlos Beltran doesn’t have the range he once had.  Brian McCann and the pitching staff did an exceptional job controlling the running game. 

5) Houston Astros

The Astros defence has improved throughout the year as they have gotten healthier and deeper. Carlos Correa has improved them up the middle, as did Carlos Gomez in centre field.  Chris Carter has limited range at first base, as does Evan Gattis when he is in the outfield. A.J. Hinch has plenty of athleticism on the roster that he can insert defenders where needed. The Astros are decent against the running game.

4) Texas Rangers

The left side of the infield is of high defensive quality. Adrian Beltre is a perennial gold glove candidate and Elvis Andrus is playing inspired baseball. Rougned Odor has excellent range and the Rangers are adequate at first base with Mitch Moreland or Mike Napoli.  They have turned the most double plays in the AL this season. The Rangers are vulnerable in left field. Napoli looks like he is going to tackle the fly balls that are hit to him. Josh Hamilton doesn’t have the range he once did so there will be pressure on the speedy Delino DeShields Jr. to cover ground. Shin Soo Choo is more than adequate in right field. The Rangers are only average at controlling the running game. 

3) Minnesota Twins

The Twins have bunch of athletes on the field.  They have range and arm strength almost everywhere.  They do a good job making the routine plays in the infield and can make some highlight-reel plays in the outfield.  Their defence stays in the game because they don’t get a ton of swings and misses from their rotation. The one area of concern is that they allowed the most stolen bases in the league.

2)  Kansas City Royals

We saw the Royals defence in action last year in the post season. Their outfield runs down every ball in the gap and they can all throw. Plus the infield plays as a unit and is as strong on the corners as they are up the middle. They are very good at controlling the running game. They can make big plays in critical situations and they have depth defensively in case they make in-game replacements.

1)  Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays have the best defensive infield.  The Royals re very good but the Jays are better. Josh Donaldson has played a Gold Glove third base this year.  Troy Tulowitzki is a Gold Glove shortstop and Ryan Goins could be a Gold Glove second baseman if he gets a chance to play every day next year. Justin Smoak is above average at first base defensively as well. The Jays have a quality centre fielder in left field with Ben Revere.  I expect Kevin Pillar to win a Gold Glove this season as well. Jose Bautista has one of the best arms in baseball and it is now healthy. Russell Martin behind the plate keeps the opposition from attempting stolen bases. The Jays surrendered the fewest steals this year.  Avoiding errors in the postseason is critical and the Jays are the best.