There were 11 games in the NFL on Sunday. Only one of them was decided by one score.

While favourites had the slight edge going 7-4 straight up and 6-5 against the spread, there really weren’t many sweats as 10 teams won by nine points or more.

Meanwhile, it was another strong week for the public as even the underdogs that covered were popular picks, including the Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis Colts.

Cincinnati pulled off the biggest upset of the week with a 41-17 win over the Baltimore Ravens as a +235 underdog.

At 5-2, the Bengals are now tied for the best record in the AFC.

I didn’t see anyone who had Cincinnati challenging for the best record in the conference before the season started.

At the same time, there weren’t many people that were high on Bengals’ rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase’s immediate potential following a disappointing preseason.

That has completely changed through the first seven weeks of the season.

Here’s the Morning Coffee for Monday, Oct. 25, 2021.

 

Chase, Burrow shine in statement win

Chase finished with eight catches for 201 yards and a touchdown in Cincinnati’s win over Baltimore.

After becoming the second-youngest player in NFL history with a 200-yard receiving game, Chase now has the most receiving yards through the first seven career games in NFL history.

From a futures perspective, Chase has gone from the eighth choice to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at +2000 to the favourite to win that award at +110.

From a fantasy perspective, there was only one player that finished with more fantasy points than Chase in PPR leagues on Sunday, regardless of position.

That player is Chase’s teammate Joe Burrow.

Burrow went 23-of-38 for 416 yards and three touchdowns in the win over the Ravens.

That dynamic duo has led Cincinnati to a share of the best record in the AFC.

Per ESPN Stats & Info, the last time the Bengals had at least a share of the best record in the AFC this late in the season was Week 17 of the 2015 season.

Next up for Cincinnati, a trip to New York to face the 1-5 Jets. The Bengals are currently an 8.5-point favourite for that game.

 

Titans humble Chiefs

While Cincinnati’s win over Baltimore was technically the biggest money line upset, nothing was more stunning than the way the Tennessee Titans dismantled the Kansas City Chiefs in a 27-3 win.

The Titans closed as a four-point favourite and were +180 on the money line.

Patrick Mahomes went 20-of-35 for 206 yards and an interception. He was also sacked four times before exiting the game.

It was the first time in Mahomes’ career that he was held without 250 passing yards or a touchdown in a game.

Three points was the fewest Kansas City has scored in a game in the Mahomes era.

The 17 turnovers through seven games is tied for the most ever through seven games by an Andy Reid-coached team.

While Chase has gone from +2000 to +110 to win OROY, Mahomes’ MVP odds have dropped out in the opposite direction in the first seven weeks.

Mahomes entered Week 1 as the betting favourite to win NFL regular season MVP at +500. He’s now the 12th choice to win that award at +5000.

For perspective, Derek Carr (+2000), Derrick Henry (+2500) and even Burrow (+4000) all have shorter odds.

The Chiefs will return home to face the New York Giants on Monday Night Football.

Despite Kansas City’s struggles, oddsmakers aren’t about to overlook how bad the Giants have been.

The Chiefs opened as a 10-point favourite for that prime-time game.

It’s not that I expect it, but considering how this season has gone, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if that number continued to climb throughout the week.

 

Running backs shine on SNF

The Colts also pulled off an outright win as a +150 money line underdog in a 30-18 victory over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football.

You made some serious money if you loaded up on the running back props before the game after seeing the weather report.

Jonathan Taylor ran for 107 yards and a touchdown for the Colts.

Taylor went over 69.5 rush yards, over 15.5 rush attempts, and over 100+ yards and a touchdown at +350.

On the other side, Elijah Mitchell rushed for 107 yards and a touchdown.

The 49ers’ back went over 55.5 rush yards, over 15.5 rush attempts and cashed on his over 100+ yards and a touchdown prop at +450.

Indianapolis has won three of its past four to claw its way to 3-4 this season.

On the flip side, after opening the season with consecutive wins, San Francisco has dropped four straight to fall to 2-4.

The 49ers are now 0-8 against the spread as a home favourite dating back to the start of last season.

 

Monday Night Football preps

Jameis Winston and the New Orleans Saints will visit Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks in the Week 7 finale on Monday Night Football tonight on TSN.

The Saints opened as a three-point favourite, but that number climbed all the way to New Orleans -5.5 before some buy back on Seattle.

As of this morning, the Saints are -4.5. The total has been bet down from 44 to 41.5.

In terms of trends, road favourites off a bye week are 66 per cent against the spread over the last decade.

As was the case on Sunday Night Football, heavy wind and rain could have a significant impact on this game.

We already know that Seahawks’ coach Pete Carroll wants to pound the rock.

The problem is that Seattle has four capable running backs, although Alex Collins should have the edge in touches after he had 20 carries for 101 yards in last week’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Even if he splits carries with DeeJay Dallas, Travis Homer and Rashaad Penny, Collins’ number for tonight’s game is low enough that it’s worth taking.

I’ll roll the dice on Collins to go over 45.5 rushing yards as my best bet for Monday Night Football.