Despite the challenges of a 2020 post-season bubble and a 2021 season shorted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Tampa Bay Lightning were able to persevere and capture back-to-back Stanley Cup championships.

Are they the favourites to win it all again and become the first NHL team to three-peat since the New York Islanders dynasty of the 1980s? That's for our TSN Hockey analysts to predict.

Going into the Stanley Cup marathon, we present - with the help of our colleagues at Sportlogiq - our playoff power rankings for all 16 teams based on their goal differential and expected goal differential from the regular season.

 

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Florida Panthers (1st) vs. Washington Capitals (14th)

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Florida Panthers
Avg Goal Differential: 1.16 (1st)
Avg XGoal Differential: 0.79 (1st)

Washington Capitals
Avg Goal Differential: 0.34 (13th)
Avg XGoal Differential: 0.11 (15th)

The Florida Panthers enter their series against the Washington Capitals as heavy favourites. The Panthers are our top-ranked playoff team after finishing the regular season first in goal and expected goal differential. Florida won two of three games against the Caps this season, but Washington played the Panthers close. Expect a physical series with the Panthers coming out on top.

 

Toronto Maple Leafs (5th) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (7th)

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Tampa Bay Lightning
Avg Goal Differential: 0.70 (7th)
Avg XGoal Differential: 0.35 (7th)

Toronto Maple Leafs
Avg Goal Differential: 0.73 (6th)
Avg XGoal Differential: 0.77 (2nd)

This series should be one of the most competitive of the first round. Each team won twice in their regular-season series and each team has world-class offensive talent. The Lightning should have the edge in goal with Andrei Vasilevskiy and his career .924 playoff save percentage between the pipes. Our model ranks Toronto slightly higher than Tampa Bay but this series is as close to a coin flip as there is in the first round.

 

Carolina Hurricanes (3rd) vs. Boston Bruins (9th)

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Boston Bruins
Avg Goal Differential: 0.43 (11th)
Avg XGoal Differential: 0.48 (7th)

Carolina Hurricanes
Avg Goal Differential: 0.94 (3rd)
Avg XGoal Differential: 0.54 (5th)

This series will likely be closer than some people might think. Yes, Carolina won all three regular-season games against Boston, outscoring the Bruins 16-1. However, Carolina will likely be without goaltender Frederik Andersen to start the playoffs, which would be a significant loss. Both teams posted nearly identical records in the past month.

 

Pittsburgh Penguins (11th) vs. New York Rangers (13th)

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Pittsburgh Penguins
Avg Goal Differential: 0.57 (9th)
Avg XGoal Differential: 0.49 (9th)

New York Rangers
Avg Goal Differential: 0.56 (10th)
Avg XGoal Differential: -0.01 (17th)

The Pittsburgh Penguins are the only playoff team with a sub-.500 points percentage since April 1, going a pedestrian 5-7-1 down the stretch. The New York Rangers have been much improved defensively since the trade deadline and will have Vezina Trophy favourite Igor Shesterkin in goal. While the Rangers took three of four games against the Pens in the regular season, the underlying numbers were close. Our model has Pittsburgh slightly ahead of the Rangers but the Rangers advantage in goal might be what tips the scale in their favour.

 

 

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Colorado Avalanche (6th) vs. Nashville Predators (16th)

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Colorado Avalanche
Avg Goal Differential: 0.93 (4th)
Avg XGoal Differential: 0.61 (4th)

Nashville Predators
Power Ranking: 16th
Avg Goal Differential: 0.15 (16th)
Avg XGoal Differential: -0.26 (21st)

The Nashville Predators are in the playoffs in large part due to the incredible play of goaltender Juuse Saros who may not be available to start for the Preds. This series was going to be an uphill battle regardless for Nashville but playing without Saros makes a difficult task nearly impossible. One thing we can expect: The Preds will play the Avs physically and look to take a pound of flesh, even if they ultimately lose the series.

 

Calgary Flames (2nd) vs. Dallas Stars (15th)

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Calgary Flames
Avg Goal Differential: 1.04 (2nd)
Avg XGoal Differential: 0.70 (3rd)

Dallas Stars
Avg Goal Differential: -0.13 (20th)
Avg XGoal Differential: 0.35 (8th)

The Calgary Flames enter the playoffs as our second-highest ranked team and Canada’s best hope for a Stanley Cup. The Flames are elite offensively and defensively and should have little problem dispatching the Dallas Stars in the first round. Only Calgary and Florida rank in the top three in goal and expected goal differential.

 

Minnesota Wild (5th) vs. St. Louis Blues (8th) 

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St. Louis Blues
Avg Goal Differential: 0.85 (5th)
Avg XGoal Differential: 0.19 (13th)

Minnesota Wild
Avg Goal Differential: 0.68 (8th)
Avg XGoal Differential: 0.35 (9th)

Buckle up for this one. The Blues and Wild posted identical 12-2-2 records in the final month of the season and are set for what should be one of the best playoff series of the opening round. St. Louis won all three games against Minnesota in the regular season, but all were close. Our model has the Wild as the higher-ranked team.

 

Edmonton Oilers (10th) vs. Los Angeles Kings (12th)

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Los Angeles Kings
Avg Goal Differential: 0.04 (17th)
Avg XGoal Differential: 0.16 (14th)

Edmonton Oilers
Avg Goal Differential: 0.41 (12th)
Avg XGoal Differential: 0.31 (11th)

No team posted a better record in the final month of the season than the Oilers who went 11-2-1 down the stretch. The Oilers season-long stats are a bit misleading as the team has played much better since Jay Woodcroft took over behind the bench. Edmonton won three of four against Los Angeles in the regular season and should come out on top in this series.