Jun 10, 2022
Moreno a low-risk promotion for Blue Jays
Toronto’s top prospect is expected to debut in the majors this weekend, Steve Phillips writes. If he excels, the Jays will have a trade chip in catching depth to further fortify the pitching staff or add a left-handed bat.
The future is now for top Blue Jays prospect Gabriel Moreno, who is expected to be promoted in time for this weekend’s three-game series against the Detroit Tigers.
Moreno is not only the top prospect in the Jays’ organization, but he’s also a top-10 prospect in all of baseball in just about every ranking of that sort.
The scouting reports project Moreno to be an All-Star-calibre catcher. He is a two-way player with a great arm and power bat. He isn’t hitting for as much power this year as last, but his .324/.380/.404 will play nicely in the Jays’ lineup. Plus, many players end up hitting for more power in the majors than they did in Triple-A. The pitchers in the majors are around the plate more than in the minors, where pitchers can scatter the ball.
Moreno is coming to the majors to play, not watch games. As a general manager, I would not promote my top prospect in the middle of the season just to let him see what the major leagues look like.
I suspect the Jays will carry three catchers to more safely use their catchers as designated hitters. I would expect Alejandro Kirk to DH on days where Moreno is catching. When Kirk catches, Moreno will DH. When Charlie Montoyo wants to give one of those two a break, he will insert left-hand hitting Zach Collins as the DH.
This is a fairly low-risk promotion. A Kirk/Collins tandem can certainly hold down the fort until Danny Jansen returns from the broken bone in his left hand. If Moreno excels, the Jays will have a decision to make when Jansen returns. My expectation is that if this is the case, Collins would be demoted, and they would carry Jansen, Kirk and Moreno. What seems like a problem of too much depth and talent usually takes care of itself. If Moreno struggles, they can send him down with the experience and information about where he needs to improve.
Moreno is the future everyday catcher for the Jays. The bigger unknown is about the future of Jansen and Kirk. One of them will likely be a trade chip at some point to further fortify the pitching staff or add a left-handed bat to the lineup.
Vladdy could learn from Trout
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seems to be picking up his offensive production in the month of June. He hit .217/.333/.348 in May with only three doubles and three home runs. Guerrero already has four homers and a double this month. I did a breakdown on SportsCentre that took a closer look at his struggles.
Remember all the talk about his launch angle? Major-league hitters have an average 12 degree launch angle. Last season, Vlad hit 48 homers with a below-average launch angle of 9.4 degrees. How did he do it? By hitting pitches up in the zone where he could still hit the bottom of the baseball with a flatter path to the ball. Vladdy is a high-ball hitter. In fact, only 14 of his 78 extra-base hits came on pitches down in the zone.
By comparison, L.A. Angels superstar Mike Trout is a low-ball hitter. His average launch angle this season is 24 degrees. It make sense that Trout needs to go down and scoop the low pitches to get them in the air, thus creating a more significant launch angle. Guerrero hits the top of the ball on low pitches, where Trout extends to hit the bottom of the ball when its down. Pitchers know this about Guerrero, so they pitch him down in the zone, more than satisfied if he hits hard ground balls.
Guerrero could learn from Trout. Pitchers started attacking Trout at his weakness up in the zone and he made an adjustment, taking that pitch until he had to swing at it with two strikes. Trout also made an adjustment on his swing on the high ball. He hit a few balls hard that were up in the zone and that chased pitchers away from exclusively pounding him there.
Guerrero needs to do the same on low pitches. His batting practices should be almost exclusively about driving the low ball. I would avoid talking to him about changing his swing. I want him to think about driving the low pitch to the wall. He will naturally make an adjustment. Guerrero just needs to take the pitches down, then drive a few he’s forced to swing at, to change the scouting report.
Girardi, Maddon shown the door
Last Friday, the Philadelphia Phillies fired manager Joe Girardi and went on to sweep the Angels in a three-game series. Philadelphia has now won six straight games since making the move.
On Monday, the Angels fired manager Joe Maddon. Los Angeles was 27-17 and in first place in the A.L. West before their collapse. They lost 14 straight games before finally beating Boston 5-2 on Thursday night. Maddon didn’t become a bad manager in a two-week period. This is just the nature of the game. It is a business, and the goal is winning. If a team isn’t winning, then things need to be tried to turn it around.
There have been a few rumblings that Maddon wasn’t keen on the front office’s desire to use more analytics than he preferred. As a general manager, it’s hard to remove a manager who isn’t quite doing his job the way you want when he is winning. But when you lose 12 straight games, it becomes the reason you are fired. There were big expectations for the Angels this year. I wasn’t exactly buying in as I had concerns about their pitching depth.
One key factor in both firings is that neither had been hired by the current general manager. They were inherited by the front office. There is less of an emotional connection when that is the case. Sometimes moves like this work and sometimes they don’t. The thing to remember is both teams have serious warts on their roster. There are real deficiencies that will continue to show up because they always do.
Marlins manager Don Mattingly called a 90-minute team meeting on the heels of these firings, likely recognizing that he may be in jeopardy. His club (25-30) has underachieved, and he is not working for the general manager who hired him. They have won three games in a row now.
It is a copycat league. When one team does something that seems to work, others will try it too. Don’t feel badly for Maddon or Girardi, they are among the highest-paid managers in the game and will be fine. I expect both to get another crack at managing if they want to return.