Sep 22, 2015
Three and Out: Palmer and Fitzgerald's comeback
Each week, TSN.ca Fantasy Editor Scott Cullen and NFL Editors Ben Fisher and Mike Hetherington discuss three hot fantasy football topics. This week they Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald's fantasy rejuvenation in Arizona, Tyrod Taylor's hot start in Buffalo, and whether DeAngelo Williams is worth keeping with Le'Veon Bell back.
TSN.ca Staff
Each week, TSN.ca Fantasy Editor Scott Cullen and NFL Editors Ben Fisher and Mike Hetherington discuss three hot fantasy football topics.
1) Is the early season rejuvenation in Arizona real – can Larry Fitzgerald return to WR1 status? And can Carson Palmer be a Top 10 QB?
Cullen: The Cardinals’ early schedule (vs. New Orleans, at Chicago) has been on the soft side, so I don’t want to read too much into it, which probably means I’m not quite there yet on either Palmer or Fitzgerald. I had Palmer as the 20th-ranked QB before the season started, and I’d certainly move him up from there, but probably in the 12-14 range for me right now. I’m similarly inclined for Fitzgerald. His first two games have been really good and it’s not out of the question that he goes off for 1200 yards and 10 touchdowns this year, but his last 1,000-yard season was 2011, so I’m still thinking of him as a WR2, maybe even WR3, right now.
Fisher: Fitzgerald and Palmer are off to hot starts but there is plenty of time for them to regress to where they belong, as high-end 2 options at their positions.
Fitzgerald’s three early TDs will give him the head start to threaten double digit scores, but his targets are on pace with his recent norms so I’d expect a bit of a falloff.
Likewise Palmer’s touchdowns are a nice early boost. But he isn’t going to average 3.5 scores per week all season and the rest of his numbers suggest he’ll once again finish in the QB2 range, provided he stays healthy.
The Cardinals have a good offence, it’s just not Green Bay good.
Hetherington: Fitzgerald had an outstanding Week 2 with his three touchdown receptions, but I'm not ready to put him on the WR1 radar yet. There are simply too many mouths to feed in Arizona between Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd for Fitz to return to numbers of old. Fitzgerald is, however, right in the WR2 range for me and appears set to become the most consistent receiver for the Cardinals, while Brown and Floyd appear to be closer to a boom-or-bust plays.
As for Palmer, his return is the main reason for the Cardinals' offensive boom. Until he proves otherwise, Palmer is a solid QB1 each week and therefore right in the top 10 range.
2) Should fantasy owners like Tyrod Taylor as much as Rex Ryan does?
Cullen: Taylor has value for fantasy owners because he adds rushing yards, going over 40 rushing yards in each of the first two games. His accuracy is good – completing 75.5% of his passes – but I remain skeptical that Taylor’s passing is going to be effective enough to have real fantasy value beyond being a bye-week fill-in or second option in a two-quarterback league.
Fisher: I was going to write about how it always ends badly for owners who gamble on running QBs like Taylor, then I checked Terrelle Pryor’s 2013. Pryor finished with 154 points for the Oakland Raiders that year in 11 games; 224 points over a full season.
Taylor is better than Pryor and the Bills are better than the Raiders so a 250-point season is definitely in reach. Taylor can’t be trusted as a QB1, his playing style inductive to injuries, but those are solid QB2 numbers.
Hetherington: Ryan loves Taylor as a starter, fantasy owners should love him as QB2. Taylor may become a viable bye week play for owners with a weaker backup, but I'm simply not ready to buy him as an every-week player. Depending on your quarterback situation, he may be worth a pickup but when it comes to a starting role, approach with caution.
3) Has DeAngelo Williams done enough in Le’Veon Bell’s absence to warrant your flex spot now that Bell’s suspension is over?
Cullen: As great as Williams has played in the first two weeks, his production is also a function of the Steelers offence, an offence that is going to be even better once Bell returns. Because of that, I’m not sure how many touches Williams will get going forward and, at least before we hit bye weeks or see that there is a big enough role left for him, I’d be prepared to leave Williams on the bench.
Fisher: Yes, he’s done enough to be a starter this year; no, you shouldn’t have him in your starting lineup. And if you need roster spots, I probably wouldn’t even keep Williams. It’s too bad, because Williams has looked as good these past two weeks as he has in a long time, but Bell is one of the best running backs in the league and the Steelers’ clear No. 1 option.
Most owners will hold on to Williams for a couple weeks just in case, but he’s nothing but an injury replacement now.
Hetherington: Williams was solid play while Bell was suspended, but he's nothing more than a bench player in Week 3. Bell is one of the league's premier backs and until the Steelers prove Williams will have more than a change-of-pace role, he's best not used. Bell had over 370 touches between the running and passing game last season, proving he can handle a three-down role. That said, I wouldn't drop Williams just yet, as he may secure a role in the passing game moving forward if the Steelers attempt to limit Bell.