Mar 14, 2022
Bunting deserves the Calder this season
Moritz Seider has been sensational for the Red Wings, but regression-based measures show the Maple Leafs winger is putting significant daylight between himself and his competitors, Travis Yost writes.
By Travis Yost
By now you are familiar with Toronto Maple Leafs winger Michael Bunting – an undersized, frenetic winger who loves to create turmoil in front of opposing goaltenders. His season has been so good, it’s drawn significant Calder Trophy attention.
Bunting is not your typical Rookie of the Year candidate, but we have seen this movie before. A late bloomer – either one who developed over the years in the American Hockey League or in competitive international leagues – has won the award in the past.
Minnesota Wild sniper Kirill Kaprizov won it a season ago at the age of 24; Russian winger Artemi Panarin was the same age when he won it back in 2015-16 with the Chicago Blackhawks. At the age of 26, Bunting would be the oldest winner since Calgary Flames winger Sergei Makarov captured the award in 1989-90 at the age of 31, which prompted a rule change that makes players eligible for the Calder only if they are no more than 26 by Sept. 15 of their rookie season.
Last summer, Toronto’s front office cited Bunting’s increasing goal production and general tenacity as key reasons for bringing him into the lineup. Bunting has delivered in spades on that front. Playing inside of the top six for most of the regular season, he’s scored 20 goals and 27 assists (47 points) in 59 games. On a per-minute basis, Bunting’s scoring grades in the 85th percentile, and that’s with extraordinarily little time on the power play.
The raw scoring numbers are fantastic. But points alone shouldn’t dictate a Calder Trophy candidacy – it hinders defencemen and goaltenders in a given race, it makes cross-position comparisons impossible, and devalues important defensive contributions from the player.
To that end, regression-based measures like Goals Above Replacement are more appropriate, where a player’s contributions in all facets of the game are measured. What we care about ultimately is how many goals and wins a player is adding to the standings. Nothing more, nothing less.
If we look at a 10-year distribution of Goals Above Replacement for rookie skaters, we find most rookies are indiscernible from replacement-level players. That makes sense. We see others struggle, and similarly, we see a handful of skaters each year take the league by storm.
To build a bit of confidence in the measure, the three highest grades over the past 10 years belong to Colton Parayko in 2015-16 (+23 goals), Mark Stone in 2014-15 (+21 goals), and Mathew Barzal in 2017-18 (+21 goals). Parayko finished eighth in Calder voting. Stone was a runner up, while Barzal won the award.
Let’s translate it to this season. The table on the left shows each year’s Calder winner and their respective Goals Above Replacement contributions relative to the 2021-22 class. Bunting isn’t just in the pole position for his group; he’s putting significant daylight between himself and his competitors.
Voters certainly aren’t perfect (Jonathan Huberdeau’s win in 2012-13 was specious and borne out of a bit of a weaker class), but you can see there is a clear positive relationship between what voters are seeing and what the numbers are suggesting. It’s worth pointing out that Bunting’s season hasn’t just been great – by this measure, only Barzal was better over the entirety of his rookie year, and Bunting has games remaining.
The interesting dichotomy for this season’s vote is less so about positions, and more so about relative team strength. Perhaps the most talked-about candidate beyond Bunting, deservedly so, is Detroit defenceman Moritz Seider.
Seider has been sensational for an otherwise bad Red Wings team, and he’s doing it as a 20-year-old anchored to a struggling Danny DeKeyser. Full stop, Seider is every bit deserving of this award.
In many ways he reminds me of the early days of Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson, an obviously ultra-talented player whose broader production was hampered by the weakness of the team around him. Goals Above Replacement likes him for this very reason – the Red Wings are abjectly better with him on the ice. (At even strength this year, Detroit has been outscored 58-56 with Seider on the ice. When Seider goes to the bench, they are out-scored 112 to 79.)
But the primary argument to weaken Bunting’s candidacy – that he is merely a beneficiary of playing with Auston Matthews – doesn’t hold up. There is no doubt Matthews’ shooting and playmaking ability makes Bunting a more effective attacker. That said, if Bunting were wholly reliant on Matthews (or even Mitch Marner as another example), we wouldn’t see a relationship like this:
Seider is having an outstanding year and deserves Calder votes. In an age-capped vote, he is in the driver’s seat to win this thing. But Bunting found himself in a prime position alongside one of the best players in the league and has delivered in dramatically positive fashion.
Assuming this holds, Bunting deserves the Calder this season.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Hockey Reference