TSN's Top 50 Blue Jays Prospects: 30-11

Expected starting affiliate: High-A Vancouver

YEAR IN REVIEW: When it comes to college pitchers, the Jays definitely have a preference for big-bodied arms that have a track record of throwing strikes. That’s the 5-foot-11, 210-pound right-hander’s profile in a nutshell. Dallas, who flashed the makings of a quality four-pitch mix during his time at the University of Tennessee, was shut down by the Jays after being drafted in the fourth round last July because of his 103-frame college workload, but he logged innings during Florida Development League in the fall.

OUTLOOK: Featuring a low-90s fastball and a couple different breaking balls that he commanded well during his NCAA days, Dallas is one of the pitching prospects that the organization is excited to take the reins off this season. We’ll know a lot more about the college-aged arms — Dallas, Trent Palmer, CJ Van Eyk and Hayden Juenger, specifically — that the Jays have drafted recently at the end of the 2022 season.

MLB ETA: 2024

Expected starting affiliate: Florida Complex League

YEAR IN REVIEW: An exciting prospect who showed better-than-expected exit velocities during his DSL debut, Garcia posted a 117 wRC+ after signing for $520,000 last January, the third biggest bonus in the Jays’ 2020-21 international free agency crop, behind only Manuel Beltre ($2.35 million) and Martin Gimenez ($1 million).

OUTLOOK: Those that spent time around Garcia in 2021 loved the confidence and swagger the young middle infielder carried himself with and he also showed a mature approach at the plate with two different swings, including a no-leg-kick two-strike setup a la Bo Bichette. As you could guess with a player his age, he needs to add strength to have any sort of impact with the bat.

MLB ETA: 2026

Expected starting affiliate: Low-A Dunedin

YEAR IN REVIEW: Complex league stats should always be taken with a grain of salt, but it’s hard to ignore Rojas’ numbers in his 2021 debut. Signed out of Cuba in October of 2020 for $215,000, Rojas struck out 39 batters across 23.2 innings in the Florida Complex League, baffling hitters with a two-pitch, fastball/breaking ball mix, and leading to a 2.28 ERA.

OUTLOOK: Right now, Rojas is getting it done with a carrying fastball, but the number to pay attention to with this young lefty is the velocity. Currently hovering around 90 mph, the 6-foot-2, 190-pounder has the frame to add more heat in the coming years, which could change his projection significantly. Considering he was an outfielder before converting full-time to the mound as recently as January 2020, there’s significant upside here if things click.

MLB ETA: 2025

Expected starting affiliate: Low-A Dunedin

YEAR IN REVIEW: Expected to be next in what’s been an impressive catcher pipeline over the past couple of years — from Danny Jansen to Alejandro Kirk to top prospect Gabriel Moreno — Mesia showed an advanced bat in the Florida Complex League last summer in his debut, slashing .288/.371/.475 and popping a couple of home runs before a late season promotion to Low-A.

OUTLOOK: Injuries slowed him last season, but it was the September cameo in Low-A that reminded everyone how young Mesia is when he hit just .129 over 32 plate appearances and looked overmatched. Despite that, Mesia is a teen catcher who shows something resembling an approach and some power in his right-handed bat.

MLB ETA: 2025

Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire

YEAR IN REVIEW: Normally, the minor-league phase of the MLB Rule 5 draft is a procedural event meant to give teams a chance at some roster filler for the upcoming season. That’s sort of what Espino was when the Jays plucked him from the New York Mets last year after a total of four home runs across three minor-league seasons, but the toolsy Dominican went on to enjoy a breakout at High-A Vancouver, slashing a career-best .295/.358/.511 with 28 extra-base hits.

OUTLOOK: There’s no shortage of players in the lower minors with Espino’s profile. Flashes of brilliance and tools, but lots of swing and miss and too many moments of looking lost. The wiry, 6-foot-2, 175-pounder has a great arm, more than enough for third base, and some thump in the bat. What he doesn’t have is an approach at the plate or a position at this point. An up-the-middle prospect with the Mets, Espino split his time between left field (34 games) and third base (20 games) in the Jays’ org.

MLB ETA: 2023

Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo

YEAR IN REVIEW: Acquired at the 2017 deadline in exchange for reliever Joe Smith, Taylor’s breakout statistical season garnered headlines and he’s become one of the more polarizing players in the system. Some love him, others don’t. Those that do point to the numbers and the obvious power/speed combo, featuring 16 homers and 30 steals across 87 games at Double-A New Hampshire. Those that don’t point to the 29.4 per cent strikeout rate and bad swing decisions. The .294/.385/.503 slash line pushed Taylor to an impressive 141 wRC+, but it was also fuelled by a .394 BABIP. He then went out and struggled mightily in winter ball in the Dominican, striking out in almost half his at-bats in eight games before that stint ended.

OUTLOOK: Northeast Delta Dental Stadium has produced a few mirage breakouts in the past and Taylor will have to prove his doesn’t fall into that category. He’s got speed, right-handed pop and has dabbled at short, third, outfield and second, which is his best position, but the Jays decided against adding Taylor to the 40-man roster this winter, leaving him exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. He’ll have to cut down on the swing-and-miss to make it work as an everyday player, but there are bench player vibes here if the 2016 10th-round pick from the California prep ranks can keep the K-rate in check.

MLB ETA: 2023

Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire

YEAR IN REVIEW: Danner originally appeared at No. 47 on this list way back in 2019 … as a catcher. A two-way prospect when the Jays drafted him in the second round out of the California prep ranks in 2017, Danner hit .191 over his first three minor-league seasons before deciding to convert back to the mound, where many scouts liked him better in the first place. After some work behind the scenes during the 2020 shutdown, Danner reappeared as a right-handed reliever at High-A Vancouver, posting a 2.02 ERA and 42 strikeouts across 35.2 relief innings.

OUTLOOK: While Danner had a good regular season in his transition back to the mound, the reason he’s sitting at No. 24 on this list — and the reason the Blue Jays used a valuable 40-man roster spot on him last November — is because he not only tinkered with his slider during instructs, but he also started touching 100 mph. The Newport Beach native went from sitting 96 mph midseason to 98 mph late in the year, giving the slider new bite. He could be ready to contribute to the big-league ‘pen at some point in 2022.

MLB ETA: 202

Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo

YEAR IN REVIEW: Acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers alongside reliever Trevor Richards in exchange for Rowdy Tellez last July, Francis is viewed as your ready-made backend starter, a role he could play as soon as 2022 after being added to the 40-man roster over the winter. Across 73 innings for Triple-A Buffalo, Francis registered a 4.19 ERA, showing a fly ball profile, which could be dangerous in the AL East, but the most interesting development from Francis’ season was the addition of a slider after his trade to the Jays, giving him a four-pitch mix.

OUTLOOK: I’ll never forget GM Ross Atkins saying at the 2019 trade deadline in Kansas City — the infamous “years of control” scrum — that he thought they’d be able to get lucky and develop their own Mike Clevinger-type arm out of nowhere at some point. It’s probably not Francis, but it could be, and new pitches always add some mystery. His major-league debut this year won’t come with much fanfare, but there’s some under-the-radar appeal here.

MLB ETA: 2022

Expected starting affiliate: Triple-A Buffalo

YEAR IN REVIEW: He won’t get any “upside” or “stuff” lines jotted in the notebook, but Logue was the most “consistent” starting pitching prospect in the organization last year. Starting at Double-A New Hampshire for seven outings and finishing at Triple-A Buffalo for 18 turns, Logue registered a 3.67 ERA and struck out 144 batters across 125 innings, prompting the Jays to add him to the 40-man roster this winter.

OUTLOOK: A ninth-round pick out of the University of Kentucky five years ago, the big change for Logue has been the addition of a cutter, which allows the lefty to attack right-handed batters with more confidence. In addition to the new pitch, a velocity program has Logue up to around 92 mph and he should be one of the first emergency starters on call from Triple-A Buffalo in 2022.

MLB ETA: 2022

Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire

YEAR IN REVIEW: Signed out of Mexico five years by scout Aaron Acosta, who liked his competitiveness and strike throwing, Hernandez enjoyed a quiet breakout in 2021. After a nondescript debut that featured an 8.02 ERA in 2019, Hernandez tinkered with his changeup over the past two years and it has suddenly become a 70-grade, bat-missing pitch. So much so that he threw it 54 per cent of the time last season. The development led to 108 strikeouts and a 2.74 ERA across three different levels and 62.1 innings of relief last season.

OUTLOOK: The Jays decided against adding Hernandez to their 40-man roster this winter, leaving him exposed to the Rule 5 Draft. Without a high-octane fastball — it sits in the 91-92 mph range on most days — Hernandez is a bit of a one-trick pony. But his trick is excellent and some more physical development could help him add even more life on the heater. His best role may be as a Cristian Javier-type swingman who’s used as a high-K utility arm.

MLB ETA: 2022

Expected starting affiliate: Florida Complex League

YEAR IN REVIEW: Seen by many as a potential breakout prospect heading into the year, Machado tore his hamstring running to first base during his first at-bat of his first FCL game in June and missed the rest of the season.

OUTLOOK: When healthy, the switch-hitting shortstop has shown flashes of the complete package — Machado puts together good at-bats and hits the ball hard for a 5-foot-10, 170-pounder — but he’s also a complete mystery at this point. Even though he holds serve here at No. 20 based on the potential upside, it’s an important year for Machado to prove he can stay healthy and pile up some much-needed at-bats in the lower levels.

MLB ETA: 2025

Expected starting affiliate: Low-A Dunedin

YEAR IN REVIEW: The first notable change for the Jays’ top signing $1.2 million) from the 2019 IFA class was his name officially going from Rikelvin to Rikelbin before debuting in the Florida Complex League as an 18-year-old. True to the scouting report when he signed, De Castro’s wiry 6-foot frame allows him to make the spectacular play at shortstop, but also displayed a penchant for booting the routine ones. The bat, as expected, proved to be quite raw with a less-than-ideal contact rate and the lack of power you’d expect from an undeveloped teenager, but De Castro started to figure things out as the year went on. Following an 0-for-21 stretch in late June, the right-handed hitting De Castro closed out the season with a .333/.481/.567 slash line across his final 77 plate appearances. That line was punctuated by 15 walks against 18 strikeouts and his only two homers of the season.

OUTLOOK: Following a lost 2020 season for the 2019 J2 class, De Castro’s finish provides a lot of optimism as he heads to full season ball in 2022. All the tools are there defensively, but De Castro won’t be able to do much damage with the bat until he gains strength.

MLB ETA: 2025

Expected starting affiliate: High-A Vancouver

YEAR IN REVIEW: Viewed as one of the better hitters in the 2017 international class, Hiraldo stalled a bit in 2021, slashing a muted .249/.338/.390 with just seven homers while spending the entire year at Low-A Dunedin. Top 10 on this list a year ago, the Jays did not add Hiraldo to the 40-man roster this winter, making him Rule 5-eligible for the first time. 

OUTLOOK: While Hiraldo’s stock is down, don’t give up just yet. While he doesn’t stand out with the bat, the stocky right-handed hitter doesn’t have a glaring weakness either, and Hiraldo’s bat speed could eventually allow for a whole lot more power. His glove fits at second or third base, where he split time in 2021, but the arm fits best on the right side of the infield.

MLB ETA: 2024

Expected starting affiliate: High-A Vancouver

YEAR IN REVIEW: The Jays showed their love for Kloffenstein when they went nearly $1.8 million above the third-round slot value to sign the big 6-foot-5, 243-pound right-hander out of the Texas prep ranks four years ago. Since then, it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for Kloffenstein. Like so many others, the 2020 shutdown wasn’t ideal for a young pitcher needing innings, but Kloffenstein’s time in a Texas independent league at least resulted in an uptick in velocity. Kloffenstein didn’t have the same type of mid-90s gas when he reappeared at High-A Vancouver last season, and he finished with a disappointing 6.22 ERA across 23 starts.

OUTLOOK: Extremely young for his draft class, there are some positives to take away from Kloffenstein’s campaign. On the plus side, he did get up to 101.1 innings as a 20-year-old, while also showing an ability to generate ground balls at 53 per cent. After walking 61 batters and throwing 17 wild pitches last season, Kloffenstein may have to take another turn at High-A.

MLB ETA: 2024

Expected starting affiliate: Florida Complex League

YEAR IN REVIEW: The biggest riser on this year’s list, Aponte had been signed for about two weeks when the 2021 top 50 was published. At that time, the reports on the glove were already glowing, but Aponte went out last summer and showed a whole lot more pop with the bat than anyone expected. The .240/.393/.357 slash line in the DSL was muted, but Aponte’s exit velocities were encouraging for a 17-year-old with so little experience. Brought to the Florida Development League last fall after not hitting a home run in 38 games, Aponte promptly crushed a 110-mph blast off Philadelphia Phillies pitching prospect Erik Miller, a 23-year-old lefty who ended up finishing his year in the Arizona Fall League against the top prospects in baseball.

OUTLOOK: He’s a long way away, but the terms “could explode” and “potential breakout” litter my notes on Aponte, which is why he’s up 34 spots from last year despite only DSL and instructional league data available. Aponte may be a year or two away from his big breakout, but he’s already the highest upside outfield prospect in the system.

MLB ETA: 2026

Expected starting affiliate: Low-A Dunedin

YEAR IN REVIEW: If you follow me on Twitter, you know about Zulueta. Up to 98-99 mph in spring training, the stuff was electric and there was a certain mystery surrounding the Cuban right-hander as an under-the-radar signing for $1 million as a 21-year-old. That led to a pair of one-inning stints in Grapefruit League action where Zulueta’s stuff was erratic but with nasty flashes, and after allowing two runs in his debut, he threw a clean frame with a strikeout in his second appearance. After all the buzz, the 2021 season was supposed to be the electric 6-foot-1, 190-pounder’s coming out party as a prospect, but unfortunately that was derailed when he tore his ACL covering first base on the first batter he faced in his pro debut at Low-A Dunedin in May.

OUTLOOK: Despite the extremely disappointing and abrupt end to Zulueta’s debut, the Jays can take solace in the fact it was a leg and not an arm injury and he’s expected to be fully healthy and ready to go heading into spring training. Like a couple of other names on the list in this range, Zulueta is still a mystery heading into 2022 and things could go numerous ways. As much time as he’s lost, he could quickly make up for it in his first 10 to 12 starts in the lower minors, which would likely result in a quick promotion in his age-24 season. There’s also a chance his stuff looks explosive, but only in short stints, prompting a move to the bullpen and a fast-track to the majors by September. Since the Jays have to add him to the 40-man next winter anyway, don’t rule that out. The third scenario is that Zulueta goes out and looks rusty due to how long it's been since he pitched competitively, and he ends up back on this list next year at No. 15 for the third year in a row.

MLB ETA: 2023

Expected starting affiliate: Low-A Dunedin

YEAR IN REVIEW: Signed away from the University of Miami with an over-slot deal in the fifth round and the second-largest bonus of the club’s 2021 draft class, Carter did not pitch in games after being selected last July. The Jays eventually brought the 6-foot-4 righty to instructional league last fall, where he threw a handful of innings and showed off a fastball mostly in the 93 mph range and a slider. 

OUTLOOK: Carter is an interesting ball of clay for the Jays’ player development department to work with not only because of his starter’s build and the chance for an uptick in stuff in the coming years, but also because he’s already impressed with his competitiveness and energetic personality at the club complex. He’s a slow burn prep arm with lots of upside if things click.

MLB ETA: 2025

Expected starting affiliate: Low-A Dunedin

YEAR IN REVIEW: Santos is all projection at this point, but it’s a sky-high upside thanks to a loose and athletic delivery and a present ability to throw strikes and miss bats. After mostly breezing through the FCL with 13.5 K/9, the Jays challenged Santos with a tiny five-inning sample in full-season ball at Low-A Dunedin, where he was touched up for seven runs. But despite an overall 5.58 ERA that won’t catch the eye, the numbers don’t begin to tell the story as Santos registered a 3.30 FIP and 2.45 xFIP across his 40.1 innings.

OUTLOOK: Currently sitting about 92 mph with the fastball, Santos has touched 94 and could add a whole lot more velocity as he gets stronger. Listed at 5-foot-11, 152 pounds, as of September, Santos has a considerable amount of filling out to do, but there will likely always be workload questions at his size. With the changeup a focus in 2022, Santos will be the key pitching prospect to watch at Low-A Dunedin as he builds innings this summer.

MLB ETA: 2025

Expected starting affiliate: Double-A New Hampshire

YEAR IN REVIEW: Like many of the Jays’ top pitching prospects last year, Van Eyk’s season was marked by inconsistency. When he’s going well, the Florida State product shows a four-pitch mix led by a mid-90s fastball and a bat-missing curveball. Those that saw him during those starts called it some of the best pure stuff in the system. When it wasn’t his day, the 6-foot-1, 200-pound right-hander couldn’t find the zone and it led to a bloated 5.58 ERA over 19 starts at High-A. Despite the command issues, Van Eyk’s stuff still allowed him to strike out 100 batters across 80.1 innings. Unfortunately, Van Eyk’s season came to a halt at the end of August when he left a start with an elbow injury, and last month he revealed in an interview with csplusbaseball.ca — a blog covering all things High-A Vancouver Canadians —that he underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of September and will miss the 2022 season.

OUTLOOK: It’s not an excuse, but it’s easy to give the 2020 draft class a bit of a break for entering professional baseball in the middle of a pandemic with no minor-league games to play in. A lot of top prospects across the sport had trouble with consistency because of the long layoff. Seen as a potential breakout candidate this year, Van Eyk will now likely have to wait until 2023 to get back into game action.

MLB ETA: 2025

Expected starting affiliate: Florida Complex League

YEAR IN REVIEW: Expectations are always high for the top bonus babies in each year’s international free-agent class, and Beltre, who signed for $2.35 million last January, immediately went out and did his best to exceed them as a 17-year-old. While the .225/.391/.346 slash line with two home runs doesn’t jump off the page, some observers thought Beltre showed more pop than expected and he posted a handful of triple-digit exit velocities. He also walked more than he whiffed and played excellent defence, leaving most believing he’s a sure-shot shortstop with the glove. He’s not spectacular, but he makes all the plays.

OUTLOOK: Beltre is a bit of an odd profile, especially for a high-end international signing. He’s more polish than tools — one comparison was “the international Austin Martin, just a good baseball player” — and his size (5-foot-9, 155 pounds) limits the power projection for most. But he’s also described as a baseball rat with some of the best baseball IQ in the organization, a high compliment to pay a prospect who doesn’t even turn 18 until June.

MLB ETA: 2026