Aug 19, 2020
Evaluating the Blue Jays through 20 games
With Toronto about to surpass the one-third mark of this strange shortened season, Scott Mitchell takes a look at the Blue Jays who have mattered through 20 games.
TORONTO — By the time you read this, the Toronto Blue Jays will have surpassed the one-third mark of this completely strange shortened season.
A Wednesday matinee at Camden Yards is game No. 21, and we’ve learned a lot about the talent on the field as well as manager Charlie Montoyo in the dugout.
We think.
If there’s one thing that has defined the first third of the Jays’ season, it’s their ability to lose close games in heartbreaking fashion.
At 9-11, they may be down, but they’re certainly not out if you want to be optimistic.
The club’s hopes of getting to 30-plus wins, which would put them on the periphery of the expanded postseason race, haven’t been helped with the up-and-down start, but they’re far from completely buried.
"Because of our pitching, I believe we’ve still got a chance, and if we swing the bats like we’ve been swinging them, we’re going to be okay," Montoyo said when asked about how he feels about where his team stands 20 games in. "Again, it’s all about playing clean games. You can only beat the good teams if you play a clean game. If you play your B or C game, you’re not going to beat them."
Whether they’re good enough to reel off an above .500 record the rest of the way is another debate. We’ve seen a young, inconsistent ballclub with an overworked bullpen, an embattled manager because of it, and the continued insistence they’re still rebuilding.
If they’re still rebuilding, we shouldn’t waste time wondering whether they’re a contender.
Just happy to be here.
That sentiment has frustrated fans and they’re completely right to feel that way.
Tempering expectations is one thing. Publicly projecting an indifference to losing is another.
On the field, the players have shown resiliency in numerous ways, dealing with the homefield uncertainty, a ton of time on the road amidst a pandemic, as well as the ability to bounce back after losses.
They longest losing streak they’ve endured is three games, while, on the flip side of that, their longest winning streak is just two in a row.
"What I like about our team is after tough losses we come back and win games and that’s a sign of a good team," Montoyo said.
"The things I don’t like … of course, the games that we lost is because we didn’t play clean games and we need to get there. To be one of the best teams in baseball, you have to play clean games and that cost us in the games that we lost."
With their run differential slowly creeping towards the black – minus-4 through 20 games –the offence has slowly found its groove over the past week, going from averaging 3.1 runs per game on Aug. 12, last in baseball, to 4.5 through 20 games, good for 22nd.
FanGraphs is currently projecting the Jays to go 18-22 the rest of the way, giving them a 31.5 per cent to be one of the eight American League teams to reach the expanded postseason.
Here’s a look at who mattered during the first 20 games.
OFFENCE
MVP: SS Bo Bichette
The 22-year-old leads the team in batting average (.361), steals (4), slugging percentage (.672) and wRC+ (183), generally looking like a franchise player on a day-in, day-out basis.
The problem is he’s currently on the IL with a sprained knee and there’s really no timeline for his return. The Jays will try to survive without him but no Bichette leaves a huge hole at the top of a not-so-deep lineup.
Biggest surprise: Outfield production
They’ve taken some heat at various points, but Randal Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez, minus one game-changing defensive miscue, have been carrying this team at times.
Grichuk is currently the team’s hottest hitter with Bichette sidelined, while Hernandez leads the team in homers through 20 games with seven.
Overall, Jays outfielders have been worth 1.3 fWAR, good for 12th in baseball.
Sandwiched between the Philadelphia Phillies (1.4 fWAR), who backed up a Brinks truck to add Bryce Harper to their outfield, and division rival Tampa (1.2 fWAR) is a pretty good spot to be considering the outfield was seen as an area of concern heading into the season.
Strictly offensively, their park adjusted wRC+ of 121 is fifth overall in baseball.
Biggest disappointment: 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
He’s walked to the plate 85 times and produced a negative fWAR at minus-0.3, generating a below average 88 wRC+ with the bat alone.
Sure, he’s turned it around lately, but the overall .221/.294/.390 slash line with three home runs still doesn’t come close to meeting anyone’s expectations, including Vladdy Jr.’s.
Most underrated: 2B Cavan Biggio
The batting average might never wow you, but Biggio’s high-walk, high-power ways have continued in his sophomore season, with Montoyo even choosing to flip him with Bichette at the top of the order and insert the second baseman into the leadoff spot.
Biggio seems to like it.
Through 81 career plate appearances batting first, Biggio has a .980 OPS.
ROTATION
MVP: LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu
Paid to be an ace, Ryu has come pretty close to delivering and he’s only been getting better over his past three starts with a 1.06 ERA.
He hasn’t been dominant and an overall 3.46 ERA across 26 innings looks fine on paper, but the exciting part is Ryu has been holding opponents to just a .211 batting average and .665 OPS against.
The important part?
The Jays have a 4-1 record when Ryu is on the mound.
Biggest surprise: Nate Pearson’s lack of strikeouts
Young pitchers often take time to adjust, so watching Pearson struggle in his initial foray through the majors shouldn’t shock anyone, but the real answer for the 24-year-old's up-and-down start was revealed Wednesday when he was placed on the 10-day IL with elbow tightness.
There's currently no timeline for a return.
It helps explain the command issues that have allowed hitters to sit back and wait for Pearson to make a mistake, leading to a 6.61 ERA through four starts, as well as the surprising lack of swing-and-miss, whiffing just 14 across 16.1 innings, a well below league average 18.9 per cent strikeout rate.
Biggest disappointment: RHP Tanner Roark
Signed in December to a two-year, $24 million deal, Roark is carrying around a 6.00 ERA, supported by a 6.95 FIP, through his first three starts in a Blue Jays uniform.
It’s a tiny sample size, but the 33-year-old right-hander’s command has been off and he’s been homer-prone — three allowed in 12 innings — which was a red flag when he signed.
Most underrated: RHP Thomas Hatch
He’s only made one short start on opening weekend, spending the rest of his time as a bullpen Swiss Army knife, but Hatch has been an early season revelation and looks to have a future in the Jays’ rotation.
His 2.70 ERA across 10 innings is a bit misleading, but the MLB-calibre stuff and delivery allows him to pitch in multiple roles for the time being.
BULLPEN
MVP: RHP Jordan Romano
It’s not a surprise that’s he’s an important bullpen piece, but no one could have possibly predicted Romano would be one of the best relievers in baseball through 20 games, generating 0.4 fWAR, a top 20 mark in the league.
The 27-year-old right-hander has only had one hiccup, but on most nights, he’s been using a 98-mph fastball and filthy slider to punch hitters out, registering 15 strikeouts across 11 innings of work.
There’s no arguing he’s the closer of the future at this point and will likely earn his first career save here in the fairly near future.
Biggest surprise: LHP Ryan Borucki
Here’s why you just never know with pitchers.
After struggling to stay healthy, Borucki finally got over that hump in March, before deciding to tweak a pitch that has completely changed his ability to strike hitters out.
Morphing his slider into more of a cutter-type pitch, Borucki has been dominant in his first-ever bullpen assignment, striking out 14 in just 6.1 innings.
He may return to the rotation at some point, but right now Borucki is showing he can be a high-leverage relief arm if that’s the way things break.
Biggest disappointment: Ken Giles’ injury
I’m not going to waste words crushing Japanese import Shun Yamaguchi, who’s been the victim of some unfortunate circumstances and assignments, actually holding a 2.48 FIP and lowering his ERA to 7.50 on Tuesday despite giving up a run in his 1.2 innings.
Nope.
It’s definitely the handling of Giles way back on July 26, a Sunday afternoon in Tampa that led to an IL stint, a PRP injection in his right elbow and an uncertain future.
Giles played catch Tuesday and felt good, according to Montoyo, but at this point they’d have to rush him back in order to trade him by Aug. 31.
Most underrated: RHP A.J. Cole
When Cole was given a minor-league deal with an invite to spring training way back in December, he immediately became a favourite to be part of the bullpen mix despite the lack of a true roster spot.
The 28-year-old has not disappointed in the least, holding a 0.84 ERA in nine appearances.
He’s given Montoyo some much-needed bullpen depth.