NFL Divisional Round Playoff Primer

Andrew Luck was always going to be compared to Peyton Manning; young phenoms are likened to established stars in sports all the time. The comparisons then, naturally, increased tenfold when Luck was drafted first overall by Manning’s Indianapolis Colts, trading away their best player ever to make room for the stud rookie.

Three years into Luck’s career with the Colts –and Manning’s time with the Denver Broncos – the question now becomes when will Luck pass Manning on the list of top NFL quarterbacks?

An argument could be made that Luck has already done so – he passed for 34 more yards and one more touchdown in the regular season – but until he does it in the postseason, Manning will still pull rank.

Luck of course, has just that opportunity Sunday, and the timing may be right. Luck is entering his prime just as Manning’s window appears to be closing.

Luck enters the game with a receiving corps that could rival any of Manning’s pass-catching groups from his Colts days. The group is led by Reggie Wayne, who has transcended the Manning and Luck eras. The 36-year-old finished second on the team with 779 receiving yards, behind only TY Hilton who finished with 1,345 receiving yards – sixth in the league – and seven touchdowns.

Other players that contributed to the team’s league-leading pass offence included tight ends Coby Fleener (774 receiving yards) and Dwayne Allen (395 receiving yards) who each had a team-high eight receiving touchdowns, and backup receivers Hakeem Nicks (405 receiving yards) and Donte Moncrief (444 receiving yards).

Luck and the receivers will have to step up because not much can be expected from the run game. Indy finished ranked 22nd in the run game at just more than 100 yards per game on average. Ahmad Bradshaw’s season-ending leg injury was a big blow to the Colts’ rushing attack, but taking a look back at Bradshaw’s injury history, Indy probably should have known this was going to happen at some point.

Trent Richardson simply isn’t a good running back, and proved that once again this season, which is partly why Dan Herron and Zurlon Tipton split carries in the team’s Wild Card win over Cincinnati. Richardson was battling an illness but was declared active before not getting any touches.

Regardless who leads the rushing attack against Denver Sunday, the Broncos’ second-ranked rush defence (79.8) likely won’t be too worried they’ll be getting beaten on the ground. Of course the Broncos pass defence is pretty good too, ninth in the league averaging 225.4 yards against per game, but they’re up against a much stiffer test.

Indy’s defence is a little closer to the middle of the pack. They finished 11th against the pass, giving up just 229.3 yards per game on average, but their run defence finished just 18th in the league at 113.4 yards per game on average.

The team’s current stars are on offence and the old household names on the Colts’ defence are now retired or elsewhere, but there are solid players that will need to have big games against Manning and the Broncos’ offence for Indy to have a chance Sunday.

It’s a poorly kept secret the best strategy against Manning is to pressure him. Linebackers Jonathan Newsome, Erik Walden, Bjoern Werner, and D’Qwell Jackson – and more importantly their 20 combined sacks – must be busy chasing Manning around this weekend because if the 38-year-old Hall of Famer is given time in the pocket, he’ll make it a long day for the entire Colts’ defensive unit.

One other Indy defender to keep an eye on is corner Vontae Davis. Manning has nothing but weapons at his disposal but if Davis can eliminate one of them, or even better add to his four interceptions on the season, the rest of the Colts’ secondary will have an easier time keeping the Broncos in check.

Former Bronco Mike Adams would surely love to have a big game against his former teammates.

The storyline is easy and while many think Manning still has at least one trump card to play over Luck left in his hand – the Broncos are currently seven-point favourites in Las Vegas – if Luck is really one of the great ones, he may be able to orchestrate a big-game upset even before he’s fully ripe. And a win would score one for Luck in the comparisons in another way too; Manning has a reputation for fading when the spotlight is brightest.

Read about how Peyton Manning's window is closing to win a Super Bowl with the Broncos.

After their 30-17 Wild Card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last Saturday, Baltimore Ravens head coach perfectly articulated every football fans’ feelings of his team when he proclaimed “we’re a very resilient team.”

It’s the best way, and maybe the only way to explain a team that always seems to find an answer to become a factor in the AFC postseason. Without nearly the fanfare of the Patriots or Broncos, the Ravens are just as much a constant in the playoffs. The resiliency is a good angle, but just for kicks let’s look a little deeper into how Baltimore is once again in the Divisional Round, a feat they’ve accomplished five of the past six years.

The season started on a sour note with the Ravens losing their leading rusher Ray Rice to off-field trouble. While Rice became the poster boy for football player transgressions too long ignored, the team took its lumps as well in how they handled the whole situation.

But once the scorn died down (for the Ravens, not for Rice) the team was left with a surprisingly solid running game situation. While some figured Baltimore could cope with Bernard Pierce moving up in the pecking order, few figured Justin Forsett would in fact be the lead horse, and put up a career year in the process.

After showing promise in previous stints with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, and Seattle Seahawks, Forsett put it together for a full season and finished with 1,266 rushing yards (fifth in the league) and a 5.4 yards per rush average (tops amongst qualifying running backs).

Next up, Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, who fits the resiliency theme as good as anyone. Despite only being somewhere between pretty good and only okay, Flacco led the Ravens to their second Super Bowl in 12 years in 2012. The then-27-year-old used that big postseason to cash in on a giant contract extension and then heard about it all last year when his numbers were, again, only okay.

A little quieter season from the critics’ standpoint for Flacco led to some pretty decent production. He set career highs in yards (3,986) and touchdowns (27), while seeing his interception total dip to his career normal 10-12 one year after throwing 22. Flacco had the eighth-highest Total QBR, the moderately new stat generally regarded to be a much better measuring stick than normal Quarterback Rating, and was 13th among starting quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus ratings.

It should be mentioned that this was all done by Flacco despite an only mediocre receiving corps. After his explosive start to the season, Steve Smith Sr. settled into his place as a solid but no longer spectacular receiver and finished the year with just a shade more than 1,000 receiving yards. And Torrey Smith continued to not quite be the receiver everyone hoped and thought he could be, although the 11 touchdowns were a career high.

All told, the offence finished 12th in the league at 364.9 yards per game and eighth in scoring at 27.3 points per game.

While the offence deserves a bigger slice of the credit for the team’s success these days, the team’s defence still holds the reputation, and deservedly so, as driver of the bus in Baltimore.

Ray Lewis is gone but the team’s linebacking corps is still one of the best in the league. Led by Terrell Suggs, who managed 12 sacks in his twelfth year in the league (the second highest total of his career), the group also features Pro Bowler Elvis Dumervil, who led the team with 17 sacks, impressive rookie CJ Mosley, and solid veteran Daryl Smith.

The secondary is an impressive unit as well led by corner Ladarius Webb and safety Matt Elam.

The Ravens defence was Top 10 in both yards against and points against, finishing eighth giving up 336.9 yards per game and sixth giving up 18.9 points per game.

Saturday’s battle will be between two of the most consistent and well-coached teams in the league. The only team more reliable than the Ravens the past 15 or so years has been the New England Patriots. If someone is to knock off the Patriots this year, an argument can be made only a team as battle-tested and grizzled as they are can pull off the job.

Read about the Patriots' consistent approach to fielding a winner

The Seattle Seahawks went from Super Bowl favourites before the season kicked off to a ‘dysfunctional’ team through six weeks to a Super Bowl favourite once again.

The defending champions’ roller coaster season included trading offensive star Percy Harvin in the midst of the team’s 3-3 start. That move that reportedly irked several Seahawk players, but one management saw necessary to save the team’s chemistry.

After dropping their first game after the Harvin trade, the Seahawks rebound and lost just one of their final 10 games to close the season. With that stretch, the Seahawks recovered to catch - and pass - the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West. They also returned to being the betting favourite to win the Super Bowl after clinching the top seed in the NFC.

The Seahawks road to the NFC Championship became a little easier on Wild Card Sunday, when the Dallas Cowboys defeated the Detroit Lions to send the Carolina Panthers to Seattle.

The 2014 Panthers joined the 2010 Seattle Seahawks as one of only five teams in NFL history to qualify for the playoffs despite a losing record. The Panthers, who finished the regular season at 7-8-1, defeated the banged-up Arizona Cardinals 26-17 on Saturday.

The Panthers will face a much tougher task in the Seahawks.

After trading Harvin, the Seahawks returned to their 2013 form of running the football and playing defence.

Led by Marshawn Lynch and quarterback Russell Wilson the Seahawks ground attack punished defences with over 172 rushing yards per game. Lynch finished fourth in the NFL in rushing yards and tied for first in rushing touchdowns.  Lynch rushed for 62 yards in the Seahawks regular season meeting with the Panthers.

Wilson, who is looking for his second Super Bowl victory this year in three seasons, led all quarterback in rushing and finished 16th among all players in 2014.  Wilson used his legs to his advantage as the Seahawks passing attack struggled. He topped 300 yards just twice this season and feel below 200 yards passing seven times, including against the Panthers.

However, despite the mid-season Harvin trade, renewed emphasis on the run and the loss of wide receiver Golden Tate in free agency, Wilson managed to throw for a career-high in yards this season.

Doug Baldwin finished as the team’s leading receiver with 825 yards, while Lynch was third on the team with 367. 11 players had over 100 yards receiving on the season.

The Panthers defence opened the year as one of league’s worst units, but managed to contain the back-up filled Cardinals offence to record-low 78 yards last week. A group that recovered from embarrassing performances early, the Panthers defence finished the year ranked 10th overall and 16 against the rush. The Panthers also did not allow a 100-yard rusher in their final eight games

Even if the Panthers defence can shut down Seattle’s offence, a win is still not guaranteed. Seattle was able to earn five of their 12 victories this season while scoring 20 or fewer points – including a 13-9 win over the Panthers in Week 8.

That Seahawks defence finished the regular season ranked third against the run and first overall. The Seahawks’ secondary, or “legion of boom,” shut down offences while holding opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 185 yards per game.

Those numbers are daunting for any offence, but a matchup for Panthers rookie Kelvin Benjamin against first-team All-Pro Richard Sherman could completely negate Carolina’s deep passing game.

Benjamin finished 2014 tied with tight end Greg Olsen for the team lead in yards and led the Panthers with nine touchdowns. The Panthers next leading wide receiver, Jerricho Cotchery, had 580 receiving yards and just one touchdown in 2014.

Benjamin caught four passes for 94 yards in the two teams’ first matchup. He was also held to four catches for 33 yards by Pro Bowler Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals defence last week.

If Sherman can handle Benjamin alone on the outside, the Seahawks will likely drop their safeties into the box and focus their efforts on shutting down Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton in the running game.

Stewart rushed for 123 yards against the Cardinals last week and has crossed the 120-yard mark three times in his last five games. The Seahawks held Stewart to 79 during their regular season meeting.

The Seahawks allowed more than seven points to an opponent just once their final six games. If they can accomplish that feat again, the Seahawks offence will put up enough points to send the team back to the NFC Championship game. If Carolina’s offence can have more success, an upset could be brewing.

Read more about the Panthers season here.

The Dallas Cowboys were led by three key players in 2014; Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant.

Murray led the NFL with 1845 rushing yards this season, putting him in the NFL's most valuable player conversation. Romo threw 34 touchdowns to nine interceptions with an NFL-best 113.2 quarterback rating and is also in the MVP conversation. And Bryant led the NFL in touchdowns with 16 and led the Cowboys in receiving by more than 600 yards.

The three will look to be at their best as the Cowboys travel to Lambeau Field in search of their first divisional round win since their 1995 Super Bowl season.

Playing the Green Bay Packers at home is as intimidating a matchup as any for NFL teams this year. The Packers were a perfect 8-0 in Titletown this season and were never held to less than 26 points – scoring 38 points or more on five occasions. 

However, the Cowboys have fared better on the road this season than any other team. The Cowboys went a perfect 8-0 on the road in 2014 and were also never held to less than 26 points. In fact, Romo was significantly stronger games outside of Dallas than at AT&T Stadium.

The 34-year-old quarterback threw 20 touchdowns to just two interceptions on the road this season. At home, he threw 14 touchdowns to seven interceptions. Romo had a two touchdown day as the Cowboys emerged from Seattle – considered by many to be the NFL's toughest road venue - with a win over the defending champion Seahawks in Week 6.

If the Cowboys can keep the game close against the Packers. it won't be Romo who has the biggest chance to shine, however, but Murray.

The Packers rank 10th against the pass this season and have returned three interceptions for touchdowns at home. Green Bay's rush defence, though, ranked 23rd this season and surrendered just shy of 120 yards per game.

That's good news for Dallas as the Cowboys owned a 10-2 record in games where Murray crossed the 100-yard mark this season. 

The Packers allowed less than 100 yards rushing four times this season and, not surprisingly, they won all four games. Green Bay has also been an improved unit since their Week 9 bye week; after allowing 145 or more rushing in four of eight games to open the season, the Packers have allowed no more than 113 since.

Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers made it no secret Murray would be a focal point for Green Bay's defence this week. The Packers haven't faced a rusher who eclipsed 1,000 yards this season since holding LeSean McCoy to 88 yards in week 11.

"This will be the best test we've had," Capers told ESPN on Monday.

Though the Packers pass defence has also been relatively strong throughout the season – three 300-yard passing games allowed – the Cowboys offence will watch one game tape particularly closely. 

On Monday night football in Week 14, the Packers jumped out to a 31-7 lead at halftime before the Atlanta Falcons, or more specifically Julio Jones, came racing back. 

Jones, matched up initially on Sam Shields, burned the Packers for 259 yards and a touchdown on 11 catches. Shields was eventually benched for Davon House, who had more success until he, like Jones, left the game with an injury. The Packers then hung on to edge the Falcons 43-37. 

House missed the Packers final three games with a shoulder injury but intends to play in Sunday's game. It's unknown whether the Packers will give Shields the first chance at Bryant in the divisional round, but the Packers will need to contain Bryant in order to significantly slow the Cowboys passing attack. 

Terrance Williams led the Cowboys 92 yards against the Detroit Lions in the divisional round, but it's Bryant who keyed the Cowboys aerial assault throughout the season. In the middle of the field, both tight end Jason Witten and slot receiver Cole Beasley also outgained Bryant against the Lions. 

An impending free agent, Bryant will look for a better playoff performance to boost his value and – with the road to Super Bowl likely running through Seattle - there may be no better time to do than this week. 

The Cowboys' unsung heroes, the offensive line, paved the way for Murray's outstanding season and Romo's - mostly – healthy season coming off back surgery. Led by first-round picks in left tackle Tyron Smith, centre Travis Frederick and right guard Zach Martin, the offensive line allowed 29 sacks on Romo in 16 games this season. The unit then allowed six sacks against the Lions tough front on Sunday.

The offensive line could once again have their hands full on Sunday against a defensive pass rush that includes pro bowler Clay Matthews and veteran Julius Peppers. The Packers ranked ninth in the regular season in sacks with 41. 

The Cowboys will receive a major boost if starting right tackle Doug Free can suit up this week after missing the previous three games with an ankle injury. Free was inactive after being listed as doubtful against the Lions.  

With the Packers likely to score 30 or more points – a feat they failed to accomplish just once at home this season – the Cowboys top trio will need to be at their best in Green Bay. 

Due to a seemingly favourable matchup and below freezing temperatures expected, the brunt of that pressure may fall Murray, just as it has so many times this season.

Read about the keys to the game for the Packers here.