TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips and Blue Jays beat reporter Scott Mitchell get you ready for the new season with their predictions on how many games Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will play with Toronto, the major award winners and whether or not the Red Sox can repeat as World Series champions.

What will the Toronto Blue Jays’ record be?

Mitchell: 72-90. The Jays fell from 76 wins in 2017 to 73 last season and it’s hard to predict anything other than a similar record in 2019. They might not be a complete bottom feeder, so pushing for 100 losses and a top-five pick is probably out of the question, but they also don’t have enough depth — especially after what’s expected to be a trade deadline exodus — to threaten the .500 mark.

Phillips: 68-94. The Jays will take a plunge this year for the purpose of rebuilding. The pitching depth is already compromised due to injuries. Plus, the better some players perform, the more likely it is they will be traded at the deadline, setting up a painful final two months of the season. The big three AL East rivals (Yankees, Red Sox and Rays) could bludgeon the Jays.

 

How many games will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. play?

Mitchell: 115. Ah, the million-dollar question. If Vladdy arrives on May 1, there will be 133 games left in the season for the 20-year-old future star to do his thing. Right now, nobody has a clue as to when he’ll be a Blue Jay, including the front office. The oblique injury and service time will both play a role, whether you like it or not.

Phillips: 100. I don’t expect to see Guerrero before May 1, but even that may be optimistic as he recovers from an oblique strain. The Jays actually do want him to improve certain components of his game (defence/base running) and his injury has delayed that focused work. But where there is a crisis there is an opportunity. This is an opportunity to really get Guerrero to understand the importance of physical conditioning. If he gets reinjured, is slow to heal or has a setback during recovery, there may be a date where not calling him up at all this season could become an option.

 

Will Bo Bichette arrive in 2019?

Mitchell: No. Make no mistake, Bichette, at the age of 21, could likely hold his own as a major leaguer. But, like Vladdy, there are other factors at play here. First off, there are others ahead of him on the depth chart and there’s really no reason for him to bypass a lengthy stint at Triple-A. Secondly, service time. General manager Ross Atkins had no issue saying on the record at the winter meetings in December that a full season in Buffalo was the likely scenario, and despite a scorching spring it’s hard to find a reason that changes. The one way is if Bichette is crushing Triple-A pitching in June or July and injuries strike.

Phillips: Possibly. If everything goes right for Bichette in the first two months of Triple-A, I could see possibly a mid-June call-up to avoid Super Two arbitration status a couple of years down the road. Why not pair up Bichette with Guerrero?

 

Will Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman be members of the Blue Jays after the trade deadline?

Mitchell: No. Both pitchers have looked ready to rock this spring, providing hope that they can return to their top-of-the-rotation ways. With two seasons of team control remaining, the clock is ticking. With relatively little hope of extensions, the Jays will try to sell high, something this regime has failed at time and time again. This is a predictions piece so I’ll make one: Stroman pitches well and is dealt by the deadline, while Sanchez also pitches well and is one of the top trade chips next winter.

Phillips: No. The only way they are members of the Jays beyond July 31 is if they are injured or have greatly underperformed. If they pitch well (and I believe they will be good enough), I fully expect the front office will make the best deal possible for them to continue the rebuild. They are both too unpredictable to lock up to long-term contracts. They may get them someday, but it won’t be from the Jays.

 

Is there any way the Jays don’t finish fourth in the AL East?

Mitchell: I’m not even going to waste words on this. The Red Sox, Yankees and Rays are locked into the top three, while the Orioles might be the worst team in baseball. In other words, the Jays have fourth place on lock.

Phillips: They have a zero per cent chance of finishing ahead of the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays. They also have a zero per cent chance of finishing behind the Orioles.  Baltimore will be epically bad this season and could push for the worst record since the Tigers went 43-119 in 2003.

 

Postseason Predictions

Embedded Image

 

Who wins the AL East?

Mitchell: The Boston Red Sox. Other than the back end of the bullpen, the defending champs return status quo in 2019, and the lineup depth and rotation will have them in good position to repeat. Playing in one of the best divisions in baseball — I’d call it the best, but the NL East and NL Central are pretty stacked — doesn’t help, but the BoSox have resources to get what they need at the trade deadline.

Phillips: The New York Yankees. The Yankees have some early injury issues to their rotation but they have good young arms to cover them while they heal and a bullpen that is second to none.  Plus, the Yankees are in a better spot financially to make moves at the trade deadline. Boston is well beyond the luxury-tax threshold and pushing up against the more punitive levels of the system. Plus, the expected loss of closer Craig Kimbrel will haunt Boston.  

 

Who wins the AL Central?

Mitchell: The Cleveland Indians. It’s a terrible division and the Tribe will take full advantage. With the Minnesota Twins as the only other team threatening the .500 mark, the Indians will be able to cruise to 90-plus wins.

Phillips: The Cleveland Indians aren’t as good as they were in 2018 but they are still good enough to win the division. Minnesota is improved, but their best starter, Jose Berrios, would be the fifth starter in Cleveland. Plus, the Twins don’t have anyone comparable to Francisco Lindor or Jose Ramirez. The rest of the division is awful.

 

Who wins the AL West?

Mitchell: The Houston Astros. The Oakland A’s surprised last season and gave the ‘Stros a run for their money, but this year it might be the Mike Trout-led Los Angeles Angels. Either way, the Astros could cruise to a pennant, even with a depleted rotation.

Phillips: Houston is highly motivated to get back to a World Series. Their core is young and now healthy.  Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are all candidates for AL MVP. The addition of outfielder Michael Brantley makes them that much better. They have plugged holes in the rotation with Wade Miley and a couple of good arms from within the organization. They will run away with this division.

 

Who else makes the postseason in the AL?

Mitchell: The New York Yankees take the first wild card and the Tampa Bay Rays take the second. This is what you get for playing in a tough division. The Yanks, despite being one of the best teams in baseball, will have to play another one-game showdown, while the Rays are a team nobody will give its proper due just because of how overshadowed they are by two powerhouses. The Angels just miss out.

Phillips: The Boston Red Sox will take the first wild card and the Tampa Bay Rays take the second. With so many AL teams rebuilding, the road to the wild card seems pretty clear. It will be the Red Sox easily as the first wild card. The Rays will have to beat out the likes of the Twins, A’s and Angels for the second and they will.

 

Who wins the NL East?

Mitchell: The Washington Nationals. The Braves and Phillies will be the popular picks, and with good reason, but the Nationals have a terrific 1-2-3 punch atop the rotation and there’s enough offence to overcome the loss of Bryce Harper. This division is a beast.

Phillips: The Washington Nationals. This will be a heavyweight battle between the Nats, Braves, Mets and Phillies. Washington no longer has Bryce Harper, but they do have great pitching and much better energy as a team. Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes are big upgrades behind the plate. Left fielder Juan Soto is a star and shortstop Trea Turner will finally break out. Third baseman Anthony Rendon is highly underrated. Plus, I can’t wait to see young stud Victor Robles in centre field. 

 

Who wins the NL Central?

Mitchell: The Chicago Cubs. Like the NL East, the NL Central has at least three teams that could conceivably win the division. Like the east, I’m going with the team that’s been there before, and healthy seasons from Yu Darvish and Kris Bryant are the key.

Phillips: The Chicago Cubs. Chicago won 95 games in 2018 and had down years from third baseman Kris Bryant, catcher Wilson Contreras and left fielder Kyle Schwarber. They got nothing last year from starter Yu Darvish who was injured. They are now healthy and motivated to get back to the World Series. It’s a deep division and they are the best team in it.

 

Who wins the NL West?

Mitchell: The Los Angeles Dodgers. Having lost the past two World Series, the Dodgers are trending towards Buffalo Bills territory. I’m not giving up hope just yet. Clayton Kershaw’s shoulder issues are troubling, but when you combine the lineup with the resources and the pitching depth, the Dodgers are in good position once again.

Phillips: The Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers have a roster of above-average players. On any given day they have more talent on the field than the opposition. Depth in pitching and players always gives them the advantage. They can overcome injuries and underperformance that way. They also have a deep farm system to make any deal at the trade deadline. 

 

Who else makes the postseason in the NL?

Mitchell: The St. Louis Cardinals take the first wild card, while the Philadelphia Phillies grab the second. This was tough. The NL East and NL Central both have three teams that look playoff-worthy at this point, but they can’t all make it. The Brewers and Braves were both postseason teams last year, but the Cards and Phillies have both made significant additions this off-season that turn the tide.

Phillips: The St. Louis Cardinals win the first wild card and the Philadelphia Phillies win the second. Despite the depth of the NL East and Central, the Phillies and Cardinals will distinguish themselves as close runners-up in their divisions and wild card contenders. Either team could go on and win the World Series.

 

Who wins the American League?

Mitchell: The Yanks will be forced to play a one-game play-in, but that doesn’t stop them from rolling through the American League on their way to their first World Series appearance since 2009. The key here, like any team, really, is the rotation staying healthy and James Paxton and Luis Severino providing a supreme 1-2 punch in front of a dominant bullpen in October.

Phillips: The Yankees will ride their powerful, deep bullpen to the World Series. Manager Aaron Boone will mix and match to navigate through the postseason and an AL pennant.

 

Who wins the National League?

Mitchell: The Dodgers. The rotation looks like a mess right now, but don’t confuse April with October. Adding A.J. Pollock to the outfield mix is big, as is getting a healthy Corey Seager back. Expect the Dodgers to be big players at the July trade deadline, adding rotation and bullpen depth for the stretch run.

Phillips: The Cubs will draw upon their experience and veteran starting pitching to get back to the World Series. The grind of the tough NL Central will sharpen their teeth for the postseason and lead to a NL pennant.

 

Who wins the World Series?

Mitchell: The Los Angeles Dodgers. No matter where you look, the Dodgers are in the top five in terms of odds to win a ring, making this pick not so off the board. But after playing the role of bridesmaids the past two years, not many are going to have faith in this team getting over the hump, which is usually exactly when that happens.

Phillips: The Cubs step up for their manager, Joe Maddon, and bring the Windy City their second championship in the last four years. Maddon, who is in the last year of his contract, gets an extension for his efforts.

 

Award Winners

Embedded Image

AL Manager of the Year

Mitchell: Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays. I’ll admit I love this Rays team. It’s a deep roster, loaded with versatile, productive players, and they’ve also shown an ability to do more with less. That’s a recipe for a manager of the year award.

Phillips: Aaron Boone, New York Yankees. Sure, they have a big payroll, but Boone will have to manage around injuries to the rotation and a revolving door at the shortstop position. Plus, they will have to overcome the Red Sox, Indians and Astros in October, plus the best of the NL.

 

NL Manager of the Year

Mitchell: Dave Martinez, Washington Nationals. Most are going to write off the Nats and prefer to side with the flavour of the month, either the Philadelphia Phillies or Atlanta Braves. Both are good ballclubs, but Martinez wins on the narrative of “lost Bryce Harper but still won ballgames.”

Phillips: Mike Shildt, St. Louis Cardinals. In his first full season, Shildt will show why so many within the organization respect him. He’s an organizational guy who shows the ability manage veteran stars as well as young prospects. Plus, the NL Central is the deepest division with the toughest strength of schedule. 

 

AL Rookie of the Year

Mitchell: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays. The only things standing in the way of Vladdy Jr. and the ROY are health and service time. Assuming he’s good to go in early April off the oblique injury, he may only need four full months to put up the counting stats needed.

Phillips: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Toronto Blue Jays. He won’t get as much playing time as everyone hoped but it will be enough to wow the baseball writers to vote for him. His impact with the bat will overshadow all of the other candidates. People will soon understand what all of the hoopla was about.

 

NL Rookie of the Year

Mitchell: Victor Robles, Washington Nationals. Not only does he have a full-time job waiting from Day 1, Robles is a sort of forgotten prospect capable of playing elite defence, stealing 40 bases, while also providing surprising pop.

Phillips: Victor Robles, Washington Nationals. Last season, the Nationals shocked us with Juan Soto. All of the chatter had been about Robles but an injury cost him a call-up. Soto made the most of the opportunity. This year Robles is healthy and the centre field job is his in D.C. He has all of the tools to impact the game on offence and defence.

 

AL Cy Young

Mitchell: James Paxton, New York Yankees. I have the Yanks making the Fall Classic, and they’re not going to get there without a strong rotation. Combine the run support with nasty, K-inducing stuff and you have a career year in the offing.

Phillips: Gerrit Cole, Houston Astros. In the walk year of his contract, the power right-hander will make a statement about his free agent value. He will outpitch his teammate Justin Verlander in leading the Astros to the AL West title.

 

NL Cy Young

Mitchell: Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals. I’ve been waiting years for Strasburg to put a healthy and dominant season together. Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom are the clear favourites here, but Strasburg is pound-for-pound one of the best in the game.

Phillips: Jacob deGrom, New York Mets. Now that he has his contract extension, all he has to do is pitch.  And he will do it well. DeGrom will get more run support this year and his season will look even better in 2019 than it did in his 2018 Cy Young campaign. 

 

AL MVP

Mitchell: Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox. The last back-to-back MVP was Miguel Cabrera in 2012-13, but Betts ends that drought with another monster, do-everything season, and could lead the Sox to another pennant.

Phillips: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees. This is the year he stays healthy and avoids the month-long slump. He will walk, hit for average, hit for power, play defence and deliver in the clutch. His performance will lead the Yankees to an AL East title.

 

NL MVP

Mitchell: Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals. Calling the NL MVP race wide open would be an understatement. A lot of people are eyeing Bryce Harper in his new surroundings, but Goldschmidt’s 40 home runs and postseason appearance are the difference.

Phillips: Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals. The move to the Midwest will do Goldschmidt good. He will get more attention and more appreciation for his impact and consistency in the tough NL Central.  He has a shot at a Triple Crown.