May 5, 2020
MLB free agency 2021: Limited options in the outfield
The need for the Blue Jays in centre field is as big as ever, which could make Houston’s George Springer a target, Scott Mitchell writes.
The first part in our look ahead to the MLB free agent class available this coming winter — season or no season — outlined the top 25 names on the market.
Now, we’ll dig a touch deeper over the next four pieces, expanding things to the top 10 outfielders, starting pitchers (May 7), relievers (May 12), and infielders (May 14).
Similar to the top 25 overall free agents, I’ve used tiers to group the top 10 at each position, then added some other notable players, pertinent contract options that could add even more names when all is said and done, and a Blue Jays target to chew on for several months.
Note: Ages are for 2021 season.
1. Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (28)
He’s a one-man tier no matter the position. Unlike the past couple of years where there’s been a 1a and 1b situation with Bryce Harper/Manny Machado and Gerrit Cole/Anthony Rendon, this year it’s all about Betts. He was shooting for $400 million and might have gotten there after Cole pocketed a $324-million guarantee, but all bets (sorry) are off now. Like I said in the top 25, he’s in his prime and he can do it all.
2. George Springer, Houston Astros (31)
Springer also gets a tier all to himself. The reason Springer is so coveted is obvious when you see the stats at the borderline elite 133 wRC+, but fact he’s still a pretty darn good outfielder — plus-7 Defensive Runs Saved in centre last year, plus-5 in right field — sets him apart in this class.
3. Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves (30)
4. Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers (29)
Ozuna took one year and $18 million from the Braves in attempt to bash his way to a big contract just like Josh Donaldson did in the middle of that lineup last year, while Pederson hit a career-high 36 home runs, 36 of which came against right-handed pitching. In other words, he can’t hit lefties. Defensively, both are capable left field options, but you’d be paying these guys to provide pop.
5. Michael Brantley, Houston Astros (34)
A complete steal in his first season of a two-year, $32-million deal, Brantley slashed .311/.372/.503 with a career-high 22 bombs in his first season with the Astros, lengthening an already potent lineup even further. Fully healthy the past two seasons, Brantley might have a lot more left in the tank into his mid-thirties.
6. Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston Red Sox (31)
7. Kevin Pillar, Boston Red Sox (32)
This is where market hits a steep decline. We’ll call this the centre fielder tier because after this it’s DH and platoon-bat city. At this point, both of these players are what they are in their early 30s, and they’ve sort of mirrored each other over the past two seasons, as their usual stellar defensive reputations have taken a hit. Pillar’s much more so, as evidenced by his minus-6 DRS mark last year and his minus-2 Outs Above Average figure on Statcast, which had him tied for 42nd. Bradley’s plus-6 OAA was 14th-best among centre fielders. At the plate, both continue to strike out too much and don’t get on base enough still, but it’s a good year for them to hit the market.
8. Nelson Cruz, Minnesota Twins, (40)
9. Shin-Soo Choo, Texas Rangers (38)
10. Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets (35)
Like I said, it drops off fast. So much, in fact, that these guys aren’t even really outfielders. Cruz, amazingly, still mashes, but we don’t have a DH list so he’s by default the eighth-best outfielder, even though he’s played just 54 innings in the field since 2016. Choo can still hit and get on base, which distracts you from his horrendous minus-17 DRS last year. He should not own a glove. Cespedes? Your guess is as good as mine. He may be approaching Troy Tulowitzki territory after heel surgery and a full season away, but if the universal DH shows up and Cespedes is healthy, he could hit his way to another contract.
OTHER NOTABLES: Enrique Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers (29); Josh Reddick, Houston Astros, (34); Steven Souza Jr., Chicago Cubs (32); Jake Marisnick, New York Mets (30); Marwin Gonzalez, Minnesota Twins (32).
CONTRACT OPTIONS
- Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers (36): $15M mutual option, $4M buyout
- Dee Gordon, Seattle Mariners (33): $14M club option, $1M buyout
- Starling Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks (32): $12.5M club option, $1M buyout
- Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals, (32): $10.5M club option, $1.5M buyout
- Brett Gardner, New York Yankees (37): $10M club option, $2.5M buyout
OPT OUTS
- Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees (31): Can opt out of final seven years, $218M
- Nick Castellanos, Chicago Cubs (29): Can opt out of final three years, $48M
BLUE JAYS TARGET
Just as COVID-19 was shutting down sports and wiped out opening day, we took a look at what the Blue Jays’ roster could look like two years from now.
That team included George Springer as the centre fielder, another free agency coup for Jays GM Ross Atkins.
While the economic landscape will change across baseball and Springer may get less than he would have, it’s impossible to predict how Rogers will react to the loss in baseball revenue.
The Hyun-Jin Ryu signing proved the front office had convinced ownership that the team was worth investing in and a window of contention was about to open up, but another payroll jump from the approximately $98 million they were to run in 2020 is now up in the air.
That said, Springer will have to sign somewhere, and the need for the Jays in centre field is as big as ever.
If Springer is out of range, Joc Pederson could be a discount version of Springer, one who struggles versus left-handers and isn’t as good in centre field, while Jackie Bradley Jr. would significantly upgrade the defence but has slashed just .234/.318/.409 with a 90 wRC+ since his breakout 2016 season.