MLB free agency 2021: No aces, but plenty of depth in starting pitching market

Scott Mitchell

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TORONTO — Everything about MLB free agency next winter will be impossible to predict.

Except for one thing.

Starting pitching will still be the commodity in high demand.

That’s not changing, no matter how tight the budgets are.

While there are no co-aces on the market this time around like there were last year when Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg became available, there’s a deep group of No. 2/3 types that all postseason contenders will be checking in with.

The timing, however, may be terrible for the players themselves, and you have to wonder if more will decide to do what Jake Odorizzi did last November when he surprisingly accepted the Twins’ qualifying offer, returning to Minnesota for 2020 at $17.8 million, rather than see what long-term offers the market held.

If players are convinced the pandemic has ruined their chances at a payday, maybe the qualifying offer sees more action than it has in recent years.

Then again, a lot of that will depend on baseball actually being played this year and values changing.

Similar to the top 25 overall free agents and our look at the best outfielders available, I’ve used tiers to group the top 10 starting pitchers, then added some other notable players, pertinent contract options that could add even more names when all is said and done, and a Blue Jays target to chew on for several months.

Note: Ages in brackets are for 2021 season.

1. RHP Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati Reds (30)

2. LHP James Paxton, New York Yankees (32)

There isn’t a whole lot separating what any of the top eight arms on this list have done over the past couple of seasons, but Bauer and Paxton stand out as having the most potential to anchor a staff over the duration of their next contract. Paxton’s 4.4 fWAR and 2.98 ERA across 24 starts in 2017 proves that, if he could only stay healthy. Bauer, meanwhile, ran up a 2.21 ERA and 5.8 fWAR in 2018, before posting a frustrating 4.48 mark last year. If Paxton’s issue is health, Bauer’s is consistency.

3. LHP Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks (29)

4. RHP Marcus Stroman, New York Mets (30)

5, LHP Mike Minor, Texas Rangers (33)

6. LHP Jose Quintana, Chicago Cubs (32)

7. RHP Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees (32)

8. RHP Jake Odorizzi, Minnesota Twins (31)

Some have track records longer than others, some get tons of ground balls, and a couple rely on the strikeout. But despite the differences of the six pitchers in this tier, they all have one thing in common: Good results and at least one or two seasons where you could call them a solid No. 2 or 3 starter, depending on your definition and standards. Every single one of these pitchers likely believes he deserves the four-year, $80-million deal Hyun-Jin Ryu signed in December. We’ll see if even one of them gets there in the end in the new economy, but that’s the starting point.

9. RHP Garrett Richards, San Diego Padres (33)

10. RHP Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds (31)

Richards returned late last year from Tommy John surgery, and it was supposed to be a jumping-off point in a full return this season. If healthy, there’s lots of Ks and lots of upside, but that’s what everyone has been waiting on since 2013. DeSclafani is another arm with a long injury history but he inched closer to putting it all together in 2019, pushing him just ahead of a large group of past-their-prime veterans and buy-low candidates.

OTHER NOTABLES: RHP Jake Arrieta, Philadelphia Phillies (35); RHP Rick Porcello, New York Mets (32); RHP Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants (36); RHP Kevin Gausman, San Francisco Giants (30); LHP Cole Hamels, Atlanta Braves (37).
 

CONTRACT OPTIONS

- LHP Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs (37): $25M team option, $10M buyout

- RHP Mike Leake, Arizona Diamondbacks (33): $18M mutual option, $5M buyout

- RHP Corey Kluber, Texas Rangers (35): $17.5M club option, $1M buyout

- LHP J.A. Happ, New York Yankees (38): $17M vesting option, 165 IP or 27 starts in 2020

- RHP Charlie Morton, Tampa Bay Rays (37): $15 million de-escalating club option based on IL days

- RHP Anibal Sanchez, Washington Nationals (37): $12M club option, $2M buyout

- RHP Chris Archer, Pittsburgh Pirates (32): $11M club option, $250K buyout

- RHP Chase Anderson, Toronto Blue Jays (33): $9.5M club option, $500K buyout

- LHP Gio Gonzalez, Chicago White Sox (35): $7M club option, $500K buyout

- LHP Martin Perez, Boston Red Sox (30): $6.25M club option, $500K buyout

- RHP Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks (32): $4.25M club option, $500K buyout

- RHP Jimmy Nelson, Los Angeles Dodgers (32): $2M club option
 

BLUE JAYS TARGET

While centre field is the clear hole when it comes to position players, there’s so secret the Jays want to continue to add starting pitching each and every winter.

Ideally, Nate Pearson arriving on the scene this year gives manager Charlie Montoyo an easy 1-2 punch with Hyun-Jin Ryu to stack atop his rotation in 2021.

Veteran righty Tanner Roark will also enter the final year of his two-year pact.

From there, Matt Shoemaker is scheduled for free agency, while there’s a group of relatively unproven young arms jockeying for an opportunity.

It’s much more likely the Jays go the trade route if they’re going to add another impact arm, so this might be a mid-tier, upside shopping situation.

GM Ross Atkins’ interest in Odorizzi was no secret before the right-hander returned to Minnesota, but he may be out of range a year later with Ryu in tow, especially if the Jays are using resources to upgrade centre field.

Of all the arms on this list, DeSclafani, a 2011 sixth-round pick of the Jays, might end up making the most sense as another mid-rotation starter with a touch of upside.